Wed, 10 March 2010 17:00:00 EST Wed, 10 March 2010 17:00:00 EST http://www.edc.ca/english/publications_2198.htm?cid=PWC-Title-E en-ca © 2010 Export Development Canada Each Wednesday, a concise analysis of global issues for Canadian Exporters. Peter G. Hall Export Development Canada's Vice President and Chief Economist Peter G. Hall comments on world economic trends. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. Export Development Canada's Vice President and Chief Economist Peter G. Hall comments on world economic trends. Tom Hofstatter thofstatter@edc.ca http://www.edc.ca/imagescms/EDC_es.jpg http://www.edc.ca/english/publications_2198.htm?cid=PWC-Image-E Each Wednesday, a concise analysis of global issues for Canadian Exporters. 144 79 no no “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.” Good investment advice, but easy to ignore when the return on a certain asset is particularly good. Canadian international trade faces the same dilemma. We know that more diverse trade would be a good thing, but over the years, the yield on trade with the US has been too tempting. But do we ignore trade diversification at our own peril? Peter G. Hall The Diversification Solution - March 10, 2010 “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.” Good investment advice, but easy to ignore when the return on a certain asset is particularly good. Canadian international trade faces the same dilemma. We know that more diverse trade would be a good thing, but over the years, the yield on trade with the US has been too tempting. But do we ignore trade diversification at our own peril? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_18504.htm?cid=PWC-March-10-2010-E Wed, 10 March 2010 17:00:00 EST 4:18 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Corporate profits are among the hardest-hit indicators in recessionary episodes, and unfortunately this time around the situation is no different: Canadian corporations saw profits tumble sharply for three successive quarters through mid-2009. Declines cut across a broad swath of industries, but in most sectors, growth has resumed. Does this just spell the end of declines, or a decisive U-turn? Peter G. Hall Reversal of Profit Plunge Underway - March 3, 2010 Corporate profits are among the hardest-hit indicators in recessionary episodes, and unfortunately this time around the situation is no different: Canadian corporations saw profits tumble sharply for three successive quarters through mid-2009. Declines cut across a broad swath of industries, but in most sectors, growth has resumed. Does this just spell the end of declines, or a decisive U-turn? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_18424.htm?cid=PWC-March-03-2010-E Wed, 3 March 2010 17:00:00 EST 4:47 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Lagging indicators are the bane of economic recovery. They are the final waves that recessions send crashing into an economy, and depending on their timing, can wreak havoc with nascent recovery. One such indicator is commercial construction, and the substantial and sustained weakening of this key sector has market-watchers worried. Will it prove to be the recovery’s wrecking ball? Peter G. Hall Commercial Construction: Recovery’s Wrecking Ball? - February 24, 2010 Lagging indicators are the bane of economic recovery. They are the final waves that recessions send crashing into an economy, and depending on their timing, can wreak havoc with nascent recovery. One such indicator is commercial construction, and the substantial and sustained weakening of this key sector has market-watchers worried. Will it prove to be the recovery’s wrecking ball? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_18405.htm?cid=PWC-February-24-2010-E Wed, 24 February 2010 17:00:00 EST 4:15 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Latest monthly price data for OECD economies are now hitting the wires, and are sure to re-kindle inflation-chatter. Economic uncertainty has led to disparate views of near-term price movements, at the risk of confusing onlookers. Is the resumption of economic growth creating inflation pressures? Peter G. Hall Inflation Muted Despite Surging Indexes - February 17, 2010 Latest monthly price data for OECD economies are now hitting the wires, and are sure to re-kindle inflation-chatter. Economic uncertainty has led to disparate views of near-term price movements, at the risk of confusing onlookers. Is the resumption of economic growth creating inflation pressures? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_18325.htm?cid=PWC-February-17-2010-E Wed, 17 February 2010 17:00:00 EST 4:07 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Fiscal finances the world over are feeling the deep effects of recession. Support for the ailing world economy was swift, substantial and synchronized in late 2008, creating large deficits that are now being widened as unemployment and lower business activity erode revenues. Hints of downgrades to AAA-rated countries, let alone the multitude of lesser credits, are a hot news item. In this context, it is no surprise that Greece is the latest draw for the economic paparazzi. Peter G. Hall Woes in Greece Reveal Broader Fiscal Concerns - February 10, 2010 Fiscal finances the world over are feeling the deep effects of recession. Support for the ailing world economy was swift, substantial and synchronized in late 2008, creating large deficits that are now being widened as unemployment and lower business activity erode revenues. Hints of downgrades to AAA-rated countries, let alone the multitude of lesser credits, are a hot news item. In this context, it is no surprise that Greece is the latest draw for the economic paparazzi. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_18213.htm?cid=PWC-February-10-2010-E Wed, 10 February 2010 17:00:00 EST 4:42 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no The US economy surprised everyone in the closing months of 2009. Preliminary figures show the economy churned out impressive 5.7% annualized growth. As the US led the world into recession, it is expected to lead us out. Does the fourth-quarter, 2009 surge herald the beginning of recovery? Peter G. Hall Sustainable Surge in US Growth? - February 3, 2010 The US economy surprised everyone in the closing months of 2009. Preliminary figures show the economy churned out impressive 5.7% annualized growth. As the US led the world into recession, it is expected to lead us out. Does the fourth-quarter, 2009 surge herald the beginning of recovery? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_18184.htm?cid=PWC-February-03-2010-E Wed, 03 February 2010 17:00:00 EST 4:31 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no There’s nothing like a little growth to pick up the spirits. Many indicators are pointing north again, and sentiment is noticeably brighter – in part, out of relief that the worst is behind us, but also reflecting a broadly-based rebirth of hope. Following a tough 2009, Canada will see the return of growth this year. Peter G. Hall Back in the Black? Yes and No - January 27, 2010 There’s nothing like a little growth to pick up the spirits. Many indicators are pointing north again, and sentiment is noticeably brighter – in part, out of relief that the worst is behind us, but also reflecting a broadly-based rebirth of hope. Following a tough 2009, Canada will see the return of growth this year. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_18042.htm?cid=PWC-January-27-2010-E Wed, 27 January 2010 17:00:00 EST 4:50 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Pan across China’s recent economic statistics, and it’s hard not to be impressed. Double-digit growth is everywhere, it is adding up to a GDP tally that makes China seem virtually unscathed by the global recession. But at the same time, the Chinese economy registers as one of the top global economic risks in the World Economic Forum’s newly-minted Global Risks 2010 report. Is this worry warranted? Peter G. Hall China’s High-Wire Act - January 20, 2010 Pan across China’s recent economic statistics, and it’s hard not to be impressed. Double-digit growth is everywhere, it is adding up to a GDP tally that makes China seem virtually unscathed by the global recession. But at the same time, the Chinese economy registers as one of the top global economic risks in the World Economic Forum’s newly-minted Global Risks 2010 report. Is this worry warranted? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_17992.htm?cid=PWC-January-20-2010-E Wed, 20 January 2010 17:00:00 EST 4:37 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no One year ago, Canadian exporters were a very gloomy bunch, and with good reason. The recession everyone else was still fearing had already hit exporters hard, and things were getting worse. In fact, 2009 dealt exports their worst drubbing in recent memory – by a factor of six, no less. In this context, it is hardly surprising that exporters are now feeling much more confident about near-term prospects. Peter G. Hall Exporters See Better Times Ahead - January 13, 2010 One year ago, Canadian exporters were a very gloomy bunch, and with good reason. The recession everyone else was still fearing had already hit exporters hard, and things were getting worse. In fact, 2009 dealt exports their worst drubbing in recent memory – by a factor of six, no less. In this context, it is hardly surprising that exporters are now feeling much more confident about near-term prospects. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_17950.htm?cid=PWC-January-13-2010-E Wed, 13 January 2010 17:00:00 EST 4:14 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no It was hard to be positive about short-term economic prospects at this time last year. Our New Year’s message could hardly have been more doleful, and as it happened, the message was warranted. Global activity levels are now much lower than they were in late 2008, and a true world recovery remains elusive. Are we in for more of the same this year, or can we look forward to better times? Peter G. Hall Stage Set for a Happier New Year - January 6, 2010 It was hard to be positive about short-term economic prospects at this time last year. Our New Year’s message could hardly have been more doleful, and as it happened, the message was warranted. Global activity levels are now much lower than they were in late 2008, and a true world recovery remains elusive. Are we in for more of the same this year, or can we look forward to better times? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_17829.htm?cid=PWC-January-06-2010-E Wed, 06 January 2010 17:00:00 EST 4:23 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no It seemed that as 2009 began, everywhere you looked there was risk. Output was plummeting. World financial markets were in disarray. Confidence was shattered. References to the Great Depression became fashionable. Markets were jolted into sobriety with the stark realization that risk appetite had for a long time been out of step with reality. Earnest recalibration of risk was underway. Peter G. Hall Surprise of the Year: The Retreat of Risk - December 16, 2009 It seemed that as 2009 began, everywhere you looked there was risk. Output was plummeting. World financial markets were in disarray. Confidence was shattered. References to the Great Depression became fashionable. Markets were jolted into sobriety with the stark realization that risk appetite had for a long time been out of step with reality. Earnest recalibration of risk was underway. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_17829.htm?cid=PWC-December-16-2009-E Wed, 16 December 2009 17:00:00 EST 4:42 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no As the sun begins to set on 2009, international traders are likely breathing a collective sigh of relief. Accustomed to hefty annual increases, traders are weathering a 17% drop in global volumes thus far in the year, and there are few signs of rebound. Will traders’ fortunes revive in the coming year? Peter G. Hall Gloom in Global Shipping - December 9, 2009 As the sun begins to set on 2009, international traders are likely breathing a collective sigh of relief. Accustomed to hefty annual increases, traders are weathering a 17% drop in global volumes thus far in the year, and there are few signs of rebound. Will traders’ fortunes revive in the coming year? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_17795.htm?cid=PWC-December-09-2009-E Wed, 9 December 2009 17:00:00 EST 4:19 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no If the world economy has you feeling queasy, there’s good reason. We’re still in the heaving seas typical of the zone between recession and recovery, hoping that the next wave will be the last, and that it won’t swamp us. Dubai World’s announcement last week of suspended payments on $60 billion of debt is a huge wave we are still navigating, and the jury is still out on its lasting effects. Peter G. Hall Financial Market Turbulence: A Shock? - December 2, 2009 If the world economy has you feeling queasy, there’s good reason. We’re still in the heaving seas typical of the zone between recession and recovery, hoping that the next wave will be the last, and that it won’t swamp us. Dubai World’s announcement last week of suspended payments on $60 billion of debt is a huge wave we are still navigating, and the jury is still out on its lasting effects. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_17716.htm?cid=PWC-December-02-2009-E Wed, 2 December 2009 17:00:00 EST 4:23 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no On any list of the world’s ascendant emerging economies, Indonesia would be pretty close to the top. Nestled in the planet’s hottest economic growth zone, the archipelago is blessed with natural wealth and the world’s fourth-largest population. Through membership in the G-20 and other international fora, Indonesia is gaining recognition as a global force. Politics has often restrained economic progress, but recent developments give hope that even on this front, things are looking up. Peter G. Hall Indonesia: Tiger-in-Waiting - November 25, 2009 On any list of the world’s ascendant emerging economies, Indonesia would be pretty close to the top. Nestled in the planet’s hottest economic growth zone, the archipelago is blessed with natural wealth and the world’s fourth-largest population. Through membership in the G-20 and other international fora, Indonesia is gaining recognition as a global force. Politics has often restrained economic progress, but recent developments give hope that even on this front, things are looking up. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_17689.htm?cid=PWC-November-25-2009-E Wed, 25 November 2009 17:00:00 EST 4:44 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no A search for Canadian exporters unaffected by the global recession would need a pretty big magnifying glass. Exports have been dented across the industrial spectrum – but the impact has been unequal. Which industries are expected to fare best and worst over the near-term horizon? Peter G. Hall Recession’s Impact Varies by Industry - November 18, 2009 A search for Canadian exporters unaffected by the global recession would need a pretty big magnifying glass. Exports have been dented across the industrial spectrum – but the impact has been unequal. Which industries are expected to fare best and worst over the near-term horizon? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_17669.htm?cid=PWC-November-18-2009-E Wed, 18 November 2009 17:00:00 EST 4:24 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no This year has already made history. As far back as the records go, Canadian exporters have not seen a worse year than 2009 – by a factor of five, no less. Canada’s recession was indeed an imported one, and the decline in activity is so dramatic that no single province but the smallest has escaped its effects. Even so, there are differences in each province’s experience, and in the outlook for 2010. Peter G. Hall Path to Recovery Challenging for Canada's Regions - November 11, 2009 This year has already made history. As far back as the records go, Canadian exporters have not seen a worse year than 2009 – by a factor of five, no less. Canada’s recession was indeed an imported one, and the decline in activity is so dramatic that no single province but the smallest has escaped its effects. Even so, there are differences in each province’s experience, and in the outlook for 2010. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_17596.htm?cid=PWC-November-11-2009-E Wed, 11 November 2009 17:00:00 EST 4:26 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Believe it or not, US consumers have pulled off a dramatic U-turn. Addicted to debt in the boom years, the world’s biggest consumers are pinching their pennies at a rate few thought possible just a year ago. This deleveraging process is weighing on the economy now, but paving a path to recovery. Peter G. Hall Americans are Saving Again - November 4, 2009 Believe it or not, US consumers have pulled off a dramatic U-turn. Addicted to debt in the boom years, the world’s biggest consumers are pinching their pennies at a rate few thought possible just a year ago. This deleveraging process is weighing on the economy now, but paving a path to recovery. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_17519.htm?cid=PWC-November-04-2009-E Wed, 4 November 2009 17:00:00 EST 4:03 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Decades of multilateral effort and untold resources have been devoted to freeing up global trade flows. Enter a severe recession, and suddenly all that effort is at risk. Protectionism, the arch enemy of international trade, is in vogue again. There are at least 10 reasons to spurn the movement. Peter G. Hall 10 Reasons to Reject Protectionism - October 21, 2009 Decades of multilateral effort and untold resources have been devoted to freeing up global trade flows. Enter a severe recession, and suddenly all that effort is at risk. Protectionism, the arch enemy of international trade, is in vogue again. There are at least 10 reasons to spurn the movement. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_17302.htm?cid=PWC-October-21-2009-E Wed, 21 October 2009 17:00:00 EST 4:09 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Globalization revolutionized world commerce in the 1990s, and Mexico joined the movement with gusto. This decision paid dividends to the Mexican economy for over a decade. But greater openness has increase Mexico’s exposure to the world recession, the most serious test globalisation has faced to date. Is Mexico coping, and more importantly, will its new openness survive the downturn? Peter G. Hall Global Recession Tests Mexico’s Mettle - October 14, 2009 Globalization revolutionized world commerce in the 1990s, and Mexico joined the movement with gusto. This decision paid dividends to the Mexican economy for over a decade. But greater openness has increase Mexico’s exposure to the world recession, the most serious test globalisation has faced to date. Is Mexico coping, and more importantly, will its new openness survive the downturn? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_17219.htm?cid=PWC-October-14-2009-E Wed, 14 October 2009 17:00:00 EST 4:28 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no If the past 18 years were like a bad dream for Japan’s economy, the past 15 months have been a nightmare. But second-quarter stats show that the Japanese economy jumped by 2.3%, outshining the rest of the G-7 economies by a wide margin. Is the world’s number two economy on the mend? Peter G. Hall Land of the Rising Yen - October 07, 2009 If the past 18 years were like a bad dream for Japan’s economy, the past 15 months have been a nightmare. But second-quarter stats show that the Japanese economy jumped by 2.3%, outshining the rest of the G-7 economies by a wide margin. Is the world’s number two economy on the mend? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_17203.htm?cid=PWC-October-07-2009-E Wed, 07 October 2009 17:00:00 EST 4:31 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Crisis brought on a torrent of public stimulus announcements last year. Plans are being implemented, and the impact on growth is huge. But in the rush to declare the recession over, there is also concern that stimulus not be withdrawn too quickly. Good advice, given the math of stimulus spending. Peter G. Hall How Do You Spend $586 billion? - September 30, 2009 Crisis brought on a torrent of public stimulus announcements last year. Plans are being implemented, and the impact on growth is huge. But in the rush to declare the recession over, there is also concern that stimulus not be withdrawn too quickly. Good advice, given the math of stimulus spending. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_17163.htm?cid=PWC-September-30-2009-E Wed, 30 September 2009 17:00:00 EST 4:42 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Trade hubs the world over have been pummelled by the global recession. World trade flows are forecast to fall 12% this year, many times the drop in global GDP. One wouldn’t expect this context to be very kind to Panama. But the country whose tiny size is its greatest asset is holding its own. Peter G. Hall Bright Future for Panama - September 23, 2009 Trade hubs the world over have been pummelled by the global recession. World trade flows are forecast to fall 12% this year, many times the drop in global GDP. One wouldn’t expect this context to be very kind to Panama. But the country whose tiny size is its greatest asset is holding its own. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_17113.htm?cid=PWC-September-23-2009-E Wed, 23 September 2009 17:00:00 EST 4:36 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no It’s the wrong time of year for the elusive loon to be flying north. But the one on the dollar coin is doing just that, as concerned exporters and economy-watchers look on. Unlike its mid-summer ascent, the current move to US 92¢ seems to be sticking. If so, exporters are in for a rough ride. Peter G. Hall Dollar Daze – Round 2 - September 16, 2009 It’s the wrong time of year for the elusive loon to be flying north. But the one on the dollar coin is doing just that, as concerned exporters and economy-watchers look on. Unlike its mid-summer ascent, the current move to US 92¢ seems to be sticking. If so, exporters are in for a rough ride. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_17089.htm?cid=PWC-September-16-2009-E Wed, 16 September 2009 17:00:00 EST 4:30 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Recovery-talk has been dominated by a discussion of letters. There’s the rapid V-, the protracted U-, the double-dip W-, and the dreaded L-shaped recovery. Recent positive economic signals have resuscitated hopes of a V-shaped rebound. Is it just hype, or do forecasters generally agree? Peter G. Hall There’s No ‘V’ in Consensus - September 9, 2009 Recovery-talk has been dominated by a discussion of letters. There’s the rapid V-, the protracted U-, the double-dip W-, and the dreaded L-shaped recovery. Recent positive economic signals have resuscitated hopes of a V-shaped rebound. Is it just hype, or do forecasters generally agree?. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_17064.htm?cid=PWC-September-09-2009-E Wed, 09 September 2009 17:00:00 EST 4:45 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Panic-laced talk of capacity shortages at North America’s West Coast ports has gone silent. Hardly a surprise, given that world trade flows are expected to drop 12% this year. Suddenly, ports the world over have spare capacity, suggesting lower, or slower, near-term investment in port infrastructure. A logical initial response, but one that could resurrect problems when the world economy rebounds. Peter G. Hall Prince Rupert: Port of the Future - September 2, 2009 Panic-laced talk of capacity shortages at North America’s West Coast ports has gone silent. Hardly a surprise, given that world trade flows are expected to drop 12% this year. Suddenly, ports the world over have spare capacity, suggesting lower, or slower, near-term investment in port infrastructure. A logical initial response, but one that could resurrect problems when the world economy rebounds. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_17034.htm?cid=PWC-September-02-2009-E Wed, 02 September 2009 17:00:00 EST 4:47 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no What makes for a true recovery? Some are counting on government stimulus. Others say it can’t happen without revived international trade. Still others say it’s about prices, or a confidence thing. These elements help, but ultimately a true recovery has to be about consumption. It dominates the other elements of GDP, and in many ways, drives them. So, how are the world’s consumers faring? Peter G. Hall Not Without the Consumer - August 26, 2009 What makes for a true recovery? Some are counting on government stimulus. Others say it can’t happen without revived international trade. Still others say it’s about prices, or a confidence thing. These elements help, but ultimately a true recovery has to be about consumption. It dominates the other elements of GDP, and in many ways, drives them. So, how are the world’s consumers faring? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_16999.htm?cid=PWC-August-26-2009-E Wed, 26 August 2009 17:00:00 EST 4:33 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Up is in vogue these days. It almost seems that there is pressure to unearth upbeat economic stories, and make a lot out of them. Many key economic indicators have cooperated lately, and on that score, the Australian economy has garnered a fair amount of attention. What is up Down Under? Peter G. Hall What’s Up Down Under? - August 19, 2009 Up is in vogue these days. It almost seems that there is pressure to unearth upbeat economic stories, and make a lot out of them. Many key economic indicators have cooperated lately, and on that score, the Australian economy has garnered a fair amount of attention. What is up Down Under? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_16978.htm?cid=PWC-August-19-2009-E Wed, 19 August 2009 17:00:00 EST 4:17 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Remember where the global recession all began? It’s perhaps a distant memory now, but it was early in 2006 that US housing markets first faltered, setting off successive waves of weakening. In recent days, a bevy of positive international economic indicators has hit the airwaves, and many analysts are now seeing the recession’s imminent end. Are US housing markets once again leading the way? Peter G. Hall Green Shoots and the US Housing Market - August 12, 2009 Remember where the global recession all began? It’s perhaps a distant memory now, but it was early in 2006 that US housing markets first faltered, setting off successive waves of weakening. In recent days, a bevy of positive international economic indicators has hit the airwaves, and many analysts are now seeing the recession’s imminent end. Are US housing markets once again leading the way? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_16936.htm?cid=PWC-August-12-2009-E Wed, 12 August 2009 17:00:00 EST 4:17 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Kudos to everyone! Consumer prices have tumbled rapidly, and are declining in most large countries – but hardly anyone is talking deflation. That’s because prices for most items are still edging upward – declines have been largely confined to food and energy items. But worrywarts will have little down-time. There is already talk of looming inflation, and the angst is sure to rise in the next few months. Peter G. Hall It’s All About Inflation Again - August 5, 2009 Kudos to everyone! Consumer prices have tumbled rapidly, and are declining in most large countries – but hardly anyone is talking deflation. That’s because prices for most items are still edging upward – declines have been largely confined to food and energy items. But worrywarts will have little down-time. There is already talk of looming inflation, and the angst is sure to rise in the next few months. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_16936.htm?cid=PWC-August-05-2009-E Wed, 05 August 2009 17:00:00 EST 4:32 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Resilience is not a word that has been used to describe much of Brazil’s post-war economic experience – but it’s creeping into current vocabulary. In past economic cycles, Brazilian volatility was legendary, and its effects on the economy, severe. Today’s experience seems to be a lot different. Peter G. Hall Brasilience - July 29, 2009 Resilience is not a word that has been used to describe much of Brazil’s post-war economic experience – but it’s creeping into current vocabulary. In past economic cycles, Brazilian volatility was legendary, and its effects on the economy, severe. Today’s experience seems to be a lot different. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_16861.htm?cid=PWC-July-29-2009-E Wed, 29 July 2009 17:00:00 EST 4:28 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no The world’s best roller coasters are hard pressed to match the recent gyrations in natural gas prices. From last year’s extraordinary heights, prices plunged 42% in one month, swifter than for most commodities, and a huge surprise to many analysts. Do recent price movements make sense? Peter G. Hall Unnatural Gas Prices? - July 22, 2009 The world’s best roller coasters are hard pressed to match the recent gyrations in natural gas prices. From last year’s extraordinary heights, prices plunged 42% in one month, swifter than for most commodities, and a huge surprise to many analysts. Do recent price movements make sense? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_16751.htm?cid=PWC-July-22-2009-E Wed, 22 July 2009 17:00:00 EST 4:53 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no A year ago, Europe was being touted as the resilient zone. Inflation was the big worry, not recession. Interest rates were hiked 25 basis points on July 9th, 2008. But the zone’s analysts were wrong. Along with the rest of the world, Europe tumbled. Brighter signs have emerged recently, enough to prompt calls for a scaling-back of government stimulus. Is Europe poised to lead the world back to growth? Peter G. Hall Western Europe: Leader or Laggard? - July 15, 2009 A year ago, Europe was being touted as the resilient zone. Inflation was the big worry, not recession. Interest rates were hiked 25 basis points on July 9th, 2008. But the zone’s analysts were wrong. Along with the rest of the world, Europe tumbled. Brighter signs have emerged recently, enough to prompt calls for a scaling-back of government stimulus. Is Europe poised to lead the world back to growth? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_16725.htm?cid=PWC-July-15-2009-E Wed, 15 July 2009 17:00:00 EST 4:34 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Like it or not, that’s where the world economy is at present. Six months of freefall down a pretty sheer cliff, and everyone’s still a bit dazed, wondering if this is a V-, a U- or an unusually W-shaped valley. Spirits rose when the freefall ended, but that seems to be giving way to the realization that the trek out of the valley will be prolonged and hazardous. What is the near-term outlook for the economy? Peter G. Hall In the Valley - July 8, 2009 Like it or not, that’s where the world economy is at present. Six months of freefall down a pretty sheer cliff, and everyone’s still a bit dazed, wondering if this is a V-, a U- or an unusually W-shaped valley. Spirits rose when the freefall ended, but that seems to be giving way to the realization that the trek out of the valley will be prolonged and hazardous. What is the near-term outlook for the economy? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_16706.htm?cid=PWC-July-08-2009-E Wed, 08 July 2009 17:00:00 EST 4:36 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no What’s gotten into the loonie? Months of calm were shattered in late April as the dollar soared by 12 cents in 29 days. The swift increase would be shocking at the best of times, but this run-up is hitting exporters during the worst economic episode they have likely ever seen. What’s going on? Peter G. Hall Dazed by the Dollar - July 1, 2009 What’s gotten into the loonie? Months of calm were shattered in late April as the dollar soared by 12 cents in 29 days. The swift increase would be shocking at the best of times, but this run-up is hitting exporters during the worst economic episode they have likely ever seen. What’s going on? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_16670.htm?cid=PWC-July-01-2009-E Wed, 01 July 2009 17:00:00 EST 4:47 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no For economy-watchers, a new month brings a rush of the latest employment figures. It hasn’t been a particularly pleasant point in the calendar lately, and there’s a lot of concern about what next month’s release will hold. With the deluge of job losses we have seen to date, is the worst now behind us? Peter G. Hall Upsurge in Unemployment, June 24, 2009 For economy-watchers, a new month brings a rush of the latest employment figures. It hasn’t been a particularly pleasant point in the calendar lately, and there’s a lot of concern about what next month’s release will hold. With the deluge of job losses we have seen to date, is the worst now behind us? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_16644.htm?cid=PWC-June-24-2009-E Wed, 24 June 2009 17:00:00 EST 4:25 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Last fall’s crisis of confidence sent worldwide gauges of business and consumer sentiment reeling. A growing sense that the global economy is no longer in freefall has recently increased the feel-good factor. Canadian exporters concur: the abject pessimism recorded six months ago has faded, with the Spring 2009 Trade Confidence Index posting its largest one-period gain since the post-9/11 surge. Peter G. Hall Exporters’ Abject Pessimism Fades - June 17, 2009 Last fall’s crisis of confidence sent worldwide gauges of business and consumer sentiment reeling. A growing sense that the global economy is no longer in freefall has recently increased the feel-good factor. Canadian exporters concur: the abject pessimism recorded six months ago has faded, with the Spring 2009 Trade Confidence Index posting its largest one-period gain since the post-9/11 surge. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_16592.htm?cid=PWC-June-17-2009-E Wed, 17 June 2009 17:00:00 EST 4:20 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Booming commodity prices led to announcements of sizable mineral investment projects in recent years. The commodity bust saw many immediate project cancellations. Rapid evaporation of billions of dollars of anticipated spending likely contributed to the economic downturn, and to the alarming drop in business confidence. But are all of the scuppered projects on indefinite hold? Peter G. Hall Scuppered Projects Resurfacing - June 10, 2009 Booming commodity prices led to announcements of sizable mineral investment projects in recent years. The commodity bust saw many immediate project cancellations. Rapid evaporation of billions of dollars of anticipated spending likely contributed to the economic downturn, and to the alarming drop in business confidence. But are all of the scuppered projects on indefinite hold? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_16566.htm?cid=PWC-June-10-2009-E Wed, 10 June 2009 17:00:00 EST 4:15 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Globalization always rubs some people the wrong way, but this is especially the case during recessions. This one is worse than usual, because many blame globalization for the contagion that brought the U.S. financial crisis and economic downturn to their shores. Stephen S. Poloz Globalization Dented, not Derailed - June 03, 2009 Globalization always rubs some people the wrong way, but this is especially the case during recessions. This one is worse than usual, because many blame globalization for the contagion that brought the U.S. financial crisis and economic downturn to their shores. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_16530.htm?cid=PWC-June-03-2009-E Wed, 03 June 2009 17:00:00 EST 4:32 Stephen S. Poloz, Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Canadian exporters have faced significant new-millennium challenges. The irrepressible loonie, increased global competition, a thickening border with our top customer, bottlenecks in trade infrastructure – any one of these would have been challenge enough. Even so, exporters have managed to grow their business and create key success stories, thanks to vibrant global demand. With that key element now gone, export sales have suddenly become tough for all industries. Peter G. Hall No Industry Exempt from Global Downdraft - May 27, 2009 Canadian exporters have faced significant new-millennium challenges. The irrepressible loonie, increased global competition, a thickening border with our top customer, bottlenecks in trade infrastructure – any one of these would have been challenge enough. Even so, exporters have managed to grow their business and create key success stories, thanks to vibrant global demand. With that key element now gone, export sales have suddenly become tough for all industries. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_16491.htm?cid=PWC-May-27-2009-E Wed, 27 May 2009 17:00:00 EST 4:20 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no When it comes to Canadian exports, the Andean region – Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela – is not likely top-of-mind. But Canadian exporters and investors have been very active in the region in recent years, and there is much potential for growth well into the future. Peter G. Hall Andean Region Holds Promise - May 20, 2009 When it comes to Canadian exports, the Andean region – Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela – is not likely top-of-mind. But Canadian exporters and investors have been very active in the region in recent years, and there is much potential for growth well into the future. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_16475.htm?cid=PWC-May-20-2009-E Wed, 20 May 2009 17:00:00 EST 4:20 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no In the economic heyday of the past few years, India was a paragon of prosperity in the new era of globalisation. India’s long-term potential was even thought by many to be greater than China’s. But global recession has muffled a lot of that talk. Have recent events changed India’s outlook? Peter G. Hall Recession a Window of Opportunity for India - May 13, 2009 In the economic heyday of the past few years, India was a paragon of prosperity in the new era of globalisation. India’s long-term potential was even thought by many to be greater than China’s. But global recession has muffled a lot of that talk. Have recent events changed India’s outlook? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_16428.htm?cid=PWC-May-13-2009-E Wed, 13 May 2009 17:00:00 EST 4:30 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Primary producers were ‘king of the hill’ in the boom years. Global demand seemed insatiable, market prices soared, financial capital was plenteous and ambitious projects were almost without number. Western Canada flourished in the heyday; now that it’s over, how will the West fare? Peter G. Hall Western Canada: the Bigger the Bubble… - May 06, 2009 Primary producers were ‘king of the hill’ in the boom years. Global demand seemed insatiable, market prices soared, financial capital was plenteous and ambitious projects were almost without number. Western Canada flourished in the heyday; now that it’s over, how will the West fare? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_16356.htm?cid=PWC-May-06-2009-E Wed, 06 May 2009 17:00:00 EST 4:20 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no History-making. That’s likely how the current economy will be sized up when the books are written. There are few episodes in the post-war period where market drama has been as intense. And with forecasts in freefall, getting a proper fix on the economic fallout is a huge challenge. Peter G. Hall Restoring Balance - April 29, 2009 History-making. That’s likely how the current economy will be sized up when the books are written. There are few episodes in the post-war period where market drama has been as intense. And with forecasts in freefall, getting a proper fix on the economic fallout is a huge challenge. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_16335.htm?cid=PWC-April-29-2009-E Wed, 29 April 2009 17:00:00 EST 4:30 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Recent signals from the Chinese economy have been mixed. Troubling developments in the second half of 2008 sparked fears of further fallout. But these have given way to a bevy of upbeat data in recent weeks, and with it, a more optimistic tone. Is China on the mend? Peter G. Hall Is China Reviving? - April 22, 2009 Recent signals from the Chinese economy have been mixed. Troubling developments in the second half of 2008 sparked fears of further fallout. But these have given way to a bevy of upbeat data in recent weeks, and with it, a more optimistic tone. Is China on the mend? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_16324.htm?cid=PWC-April-22-2009-E Wed, 22 April 2009 17:00:00 EST 5:45 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no 'Up' has crept back into US economy-talk in recent days. A quick rally in equity markets, modest commodity-price gains and what seems like a bottoming-out of certain key US economic signals have together fuelled hopes of impending rebound. But what are the leading indicators saying? Peter G. Hall Clues from the US Leading Indicator - April 15, 2009 'Up' has crept back into US economy-talk in recent days. A quick rally in equity markets, modest commodity-price gains and what seems like a bottoming-out of certain key US economic signals have together fuelled hopes of impending rebound. But what are the leading indicators saying? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_16302.htm?cid=PWC-April-15-2009-E Wed, 15 April 2009 17:00:00 EST 5:55 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Decoupling was a popular term a year ago, used to describe how the rest of the world had unhitched from the US economic problem. It is now rich fodder for late-show humour. The acutely synchronized recoil that output saw in late 2008 has erased decoupling from the vernacular, and sent global forecasts tumbling. To make matters worse, this is no one-quarter wonder. Peter G. Hall Good News Beyond the First Quarter? - April 8, 2009 Decoupling was a popular term a year ago, used to describe how the rest of the world had unhitched from the US economic problem. It is now rich fodder for late-show humour. The acutely synchronized recoil that output saw in late 2008 has erased decoupling from the vernacular, and sent global forecasts tumbling. To make matters worse, this is no one-quarter wonder. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_16266.htm?cid=PWC-April-8-2009-E Wed, 8 April 2009 17:00:00 EST 5:43 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no “Never waste a good crisis”. This has recently become the mantra of key policymakers, who are seizing the moment to enact good legislation. Sadly, the crisis has also dredged up discussion of policies that, if applied, would cause great harm. Protectionism is close to the top of that list. Peter G. Hall The Poison of Protectionism - April 1, 2009 “Never waste a good crisis”. This has recently become the mantra of key policymakers, who are seizing the moment to enact good legislation. Sadly, the crisis has also dredged up discussion of policies that, if applied, would cause great harm. Protectionism is close to the top of that list. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_16259.htm?cid=PWC-April-1-2009-E Wed, 1 April 2009 17:00:00 EST 5:44 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Three cheers! US housing starts rose 22% in February, the first monthly increase since June, 2008. In a market hungry for good news, this was well-received, fuelling hopes that the industry where the global recession began is finally bottoming out. Is this leading sector on the mend? Peter G. Hall Is US Housing on the Mend? - March 25, 2009 Three cheers! US housing starts rose 22% in February, the first monthly increase since June, 2008. In a market hungry for good news, this was well-received, fuelling hopes that the industry where the global recession began is finally bottoming out. Is this leading sector on the mend? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_16232.htm?cid=PWC-March-25-2009-E Wed, 25 March 2009 17:00:00 EST 5:46 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no The woes of the West and key emerging markets are, for the most part, eclipsing the stories of other key regions. If the slowdown is truly global, how is Sub-Saharan Africa faring? Peter G. Hall Sub-Saharan Setback - March 18, 2009 The woes of the West and key emerging markets are, for the most part, eclipsing the stories of other key regions. If the slowdown is truly global, how is Sub-Saharan Africa faring? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_16178.htm?cid=PWC-March-18-2009-E Wed, 18 March 2009 17:00:00 EST 7:35 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no “In the long run we are all dead”. In that short quip, John Maynard Keynes famously criticised the hands-off attitude of policy-makers in the 1930s, when short-term economic stimulus was badly needed. Keynes might be proud of today’s policy-makers. But can we afford all of the stimulus? Peter G. Hall Paying For All the Stimulus - March 11, 2009 “In the long run we are all dead”. In that short quip, John Maynard Keynes famously criticised the hands-off attitude of policy-makers in the 1930s, when short-term economic stimulus was badly needed. Keynes might be proud of today’s policy-makers. But can we afford all of the stimulus? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_16170.htm?cid=PWC-March-11-2009-E Wed, 11 March 2009 17:00:00 EST 6:13 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no For world GDP, the fourth quarter of 2008 was ugly. Canada was no exception, as our economy fell into recession, shrinking by an annualized 3.4% in the quarter. But Canada suffered a lot less than most other large economies – strange, given our greater dependence on international trade. Has our resilient domestic economy helped us to sidestep the worst of the global gloom? Peter G. Hall Canadian Trade Tumbles - March 4, 2009 For world GDP, the fourth quarter of 2008 was ugly. Canada was no exception, as our economy fell into recession, shrinking by an annualized 3.4% in the quarter. But Canada suffered a lot less than most other large economies – strange, given our greater dependence on international trade. Has our resilient domestic economy helped us to sidestep the worst of the global gloom? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_16157.htm?cid=PWC-March-4-2009-E Wed, 4 March 2009 17:00:00 EST 6:12 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Spreading global weakness is casting doubt on the forecasts for global economic hot spots. Gulf Cooperation Council countries defied description in the boom years, but recently, news out of the region has soured. Has the regional bubble burst, or is the zone still a hothouse of activity? Peter G. Hall Is the Inventory Cycle Dead? - February 18, 2009 Spreading global weakness is casting doubt on the forecasts for global economic hot spots. Gulf Cooperation Council countries defied description in the boom years, but recently, news out of the region has soured. Has the regional bubble burst, or is the zone still a hothouse of activity? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_16140.htm?cid=PWC-February-25-2009-E Wed, 25 February 2009 17:00:00 EST 5:56 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no One clear indication of impending recession is the number of economy-watchers saying “It’s different this time”. Fooled again – so far, the global economy’s woes look pretty similar to past recessions, only moreso. But the phrase hasn’t been dropped completely. With all the recent innovations in inventory management, many are wondering if the inventory cycle is dead. Peter G. Hall Is the Inventory Cycle Dead? - February 18, 2009 One clear indication of impending recession is the number of economy-watchers saying “It’s different this time”. Fooled again – so far, the global economy’s woes look pretty similar to past recessions, only moreso. But the phrase hasn’t been dropped completely. With all the recent innovations in inventory management, many are wondering if the inventory cycle is dead. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_16096.htm?cid=PWC-February-18-2009-E Wed, 18 February 2009 17:00:00 EST 5:56 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no A year ago, pressures on the global labour supply were intensifying. The boom years were a job machine, driving global unemployment rates down to generational lows. Recession has turned the tide, and huge layoffs announcements are now a daily ritual. Last Friday’s job losses in Canada and the US were a shocker. How much more of this are we likely to see? Peter G. Hall Get Used to Job Losses, For Now - February 11, 2009 A year ago, pressures on the global labour supply were intensifying. The boom years were a job machine, driving global unemployment rates down to generational lows. Recession has turned the tide, and huge layoffs announcements are now a daily ritual. Last Friday’s job losses in Canada and the US were a shocker. How much more of this are we likely to see? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_16082.htm?cid=PWC-February-11-2009-E Wed, 11 February 2009 17:00:00 EST 5:45 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Concern about deflation is gathering momentum. The dreaded ‘d’ word surfaced last fall, and is now a regular in business news. It has even crept into emerging market analysis, unimaginable just weeks ago. Are we really on a deflation precipice, or is this just headline-grabbing alarmism? Peter G. Hall The Deflation Debate: Myth and Reality - February 04, 2009 Concern about deflation is gathering momentum. The dreaded ‘d’ word surfaced last fall, and is now a regular in business news. It has even crept into emerging market analysis, unimaginable just weeks ago. Are we really on a deflation precipice, or is this just headline-grabbing alarmism? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_16074.htm?cid=PWC-February-04-2009-E Wed, 04 February 2009 17:00:00 EST 6:02 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no All pundits now agree that we’re in a global recession. But views on the depth of the economy’s dive remain divided. The IMF has yet again lowered its global growth forecast for 2009, this time to a paper-thin 0.5%. Others are bound to follow. Conditions are bad, but are they really that bad? Peter G. Hall Are Trade’s Bellwethers Well? - January 28, 2009 All pundits now agree that we’re in a global recession. But views on the depth of the economy’s dive remain divided. The IMF has yet again lowered its global growth forecast for 2009, this time to a paper-thin 0.5%. Others are bound to follow. Conditions are bad, but are they really that bad? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_16043.htm?cid=PWC-January-28-2009-E Wed, 28 January 2009 17:00:00 EST 6:02 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Concerns about the current path of the world economy have analysts and strategists transfixed on the latest monthly data releases, and with just cause. Talk about our demographic challenge has all but ceased. It may not be our first worry, but we take our eyes off this issue at our peril. Peter G. Hall Don’t Disregard Demography - January 21, 2009 Concerns about the current path of the world economy have analysts and strategists transfixed on the latest monthly data releases, and with just cause. Talk about our demographic challenge has all but ceased. It may not be our first worry, but we take our eyes off this issue at our peril. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_16032.htm?cid=PWC-January-21-2009-E Wed, 21 January 2009 17:00:00 EST 6:05 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Confidence tumbled last fall on a number of fronts. Market turbulence, rising retail prices and economic weakening pummelled consumer and business confidence. Canadian exporters, on the front lines of the global slowdown, were big contributors to the growing sense of gloom. Peter G. Hall Trade Confidence Falls to Record Low - January 14, 2009 Confidence tumbled last fall on a number of fronts. Market turbulence, rising retail prices and economic weakening pummelled consumer and business confidence. Canadian exporters, on the front lines of the global slowdown, were big contributors to the growing sense of gloom. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_15980.htm?cid=PWC-January-14-2009-E Wed, 14 January 2009 17:00:00 EST 5:34 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Few believe that the standard New Year greeting applies to things economic. The shellshock of last fall’s seismic financial and economic shifts has worn off, and turned into abject pessimism about the near-term future. Bleak stuff to start the year with. What should we be prepared for? Peter G. Hall When the seven years of plenty came to an end… - January 07, 2009 Few believe that the standard New Year greeting applies to things economic. The shellshock of last fall’s seismic financial and economic shifts has worn off, and turned into abject pessimism about the near-term future. Bleak stuff to start the year with. What should we be prepared for? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_15945.htm?cid=PWC-January-07-2009-E Wed, 07 January 2009 17:00:00 EST 5:32 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Still not convinced there’s a serious global economic slowdown in the works? Look no further than actions by key central banks in the last few days. By any measure, interest rate reductions were huge, a needed boost to the economy. But they also suggest more bad news to come. Peter G. Hall Policy Rates Tumble - December 10, 2008 Still not convinced there’s a serious global economic slowdown in the works? Look no further than actions by key central banks in the last few days. By any measure, interest rate reductions were huge, a needed boost to the economy. But they also suggest more bad news to come. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_15853.htm?cid=PWC-December-10-2008-E Wed, 10 December 2008 17:00:00 EST 6:06 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Recent pessimism has created a “flat is the new up” mentality in the economy. With the wrecking ball of recession battering the world economy, talk of growth has all but disappeared, and its mention seems to generate either wistful thinking or a cynical smirk. Even so, growth opportunities do exist in an unlikely sector: non-residential construction. Peter G. Hall Construction gets a near-term boost - December 03, 2008 Recent pessimism has created a “flat is the new up” mentality in the economy. With the wrecking ball of recession battering the world economy, talk of growth has all but disappeared, and its mention seems to generate either wistful thinking or a cynical smirk. Even so, growth opportunities do exist in an unlikely sector: non-residential construction. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_15720.htm?cid=PWC-December-03-2008-E Wed, 03 December 2008 17:00:00 EST 5:33 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no The adage “one month does not a trend make” was shattered in October. The speed of change in key economic indicators was breathtaking, and wasn’t confined to single economies, industries or ideologies. Analysts’ views on the economy’s near-term path, disparate just weeks ago, now vary only on the severity of the downturn. The dust kicked up by the rapid change and resulting post-October volatility has clouded the economic line of sight significantly. Peter G. Hall Speed of recent change breathtaking - November 26, 2008 The adage “one month does not a trend make” was shattered in October. The speed of change in key economic indicators was breathtaking, and wasn’t confined to single economies, industries or ideologies. Analysts’ views on the economy’s near-term path, disparate just weeks ago, now vary only on the severity of the downturn. The dust kicked up by the rapid change and resulting post-October volatility has clouded the economic line of sight significantly. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_15703.htm?cid=PWC-November-26-2008-E Wed, 26 November 2008 17:00:00 EST 6:00 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no There have been many predictions about where the credit crunch would end, all of which have proven to be overly optimistic. Today, the honest answers range from "It depends" to "I don't know". Peter G. Hall Where will the credit crunch end? - November 19, 2008 There have been many predictions about where the credit crunch would end, all of which have proven to be overly optimistic. Today, the honest answers range from "It depends" to "I don't know". If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_15615.htm?cid=PWC-November-19-2008-E Wed, 19 November 2008 17:00:00 EST 6:10 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Just when we thought we were running out of superlatives to describe it, China’s economy has hit a snag. Growth has slowed sharply, silencing all who proclaimed China’s immunity to the global slowdown mere months ago. Many inside this modern economic sensation have experienced little of the dynamics of slowdown and decline, but they soon will. This one is just beginning. Peter G. Hall China’s Imported Downturn - November 12, 2008 Just when we thought we were running out of superlatives to describe it, China’s economy has hit a snag. Growth has slowed sharply, silencing all who proclaimed China’s immunity to the global slowdown mere months ago. Many inside this modern economic sensation have experienced little of the dynamics of slowdown and decline, but they soon will. This one is just beginning. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_15573.htm?cid=PWC-November-12-2008-E Wed, 12 November 2008 17:00:00 EST 5:58 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Up’ isn’t a word that describes much in the American economy at the moment. Housing is down, the stock market is down, liquidity is down, and more recently, national output itself is down. And in a rapid reversal, even inflation is down. So why is the U.S. dollar currently on a big tear? Peter G. Hall The Stalwart Greenback - November 05, 2008 Up’ isn’t a word that describes much in the American economy at the moment. Housing is down, the stock market is down, liquidity is down, and more recently, national output itself is down. And in a rapid reversal, even inflation is down. So why is the U.S. dollar currently on a big tear? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_15547.htm?cid=PWC-November-05-2008-E Wed, 05 November 2008 17:00:00 EST 5:54 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Looking out the window isn’t much fun these days. It’s mighty stormy in the global economy, and every day seems a bit wilder. Getting a read on any storm is always tough at ground zero. But even the satellite scan is hard to interpret in today’s super-storm. What does the forecast call for? Peter G. Hall Weathering the Weather - October 29, 2008 Looking out the window isn’t much fun these days. It’s mighty stormy in the global economy, and every day seems a bit wilder. Getting a read on any storm is always tough at ground zero. But even the satellite scan is hard to interpret in today’s super-storm. What does the forecast call for? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_15524.htm?cid=PWC-October-29-2008-E Wed, 29 October 2008 17:00:00 EST 5:39 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no News media must be ecstatic. In recent weeks, hardly a day has gone by but some major new event has hit the street. Bailouts, bankruptcies, stock market volatility and commodity prices in freefall have almost become commonplace, spurring a frenzied search for superlatives that adequately capture the unfolding story. What are we to make of the financial sector mayhem? Peter G. Hall Restoring Confidence is Key - October 22, 2008 News media must be ecstatic. In recent weeks, hardly a day has gone by but some major new event has hit the street. Bailouts, bankruptcies, stock market volatility and commodity prices in freefall have almost become commonplace, spurring a frenzied search for superlatives that adequately capture the unfolding story. What are we to make of the financial sector mayhem? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_15519.htm?cid=PWC-October-22-2008-E Wed, 22 October 2008 17:00:00 EST 5:58 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no In any economic slowdown, big-ticket purchases are the first target of penny-pinching consumers. Auto producers know this well, and are feeling the squeeze. Sales are down sharply in the US, by far the world’s largest auto market, raising serious questions about the industry’s prospects. Peter G. Hall New Vehicle Platforms Buffer Hard Times - October 15, 2008 In any economic slowdown, big-ticket purchases are the first target of penny-pinching consumers. Auto producers know this well, and are feeling the squeeze. Sales are down sharply in the US, by far the world’s largest auto market, raising serious questions about the industry’s prospects. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_15501.htm?cid=PWC-October-15-2008-E Wed, 15 October 2008 17:00:00 EST 5:34 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no A few weeks ago, the prognosis for Japan’s economy was not good – most analysts were convinced the nation was already in recession. But investors have swiftly turned bullish on the economy, and the yen has surged by 6% in the past few days. Is Japan suddenly a good bet? Peter G. Hall Japan’s Moment in the Sun - October 08, 2008 A few weeks ago, the prognosis for Japan’s economy was not good – most analysts were convinced the nation was already in recession. But investors have swiftly turned bullish on the economy, and the yen has surged by 6% in the past few days. Is Japan suddenly a good bet? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_15495.htm?cid=PWC-October-08-2008-E Wed, 08 October 2008 17:00:00 EST 5:55 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Everybody knows that Canada is a trading nation. Compare the share of trade to total economic output, and Canada ranks close to the top among large industrialized economies. But take away trade with our number one customer, the U.S. economy, and we’re not much of a trading nation at all. In fact, we are really a North American economy, with a limited stake in the rest of the world. What would Canadian trade activity look like if we were truly a diversified trading nation? Peter G. Hall The Diversification Dividend - October 01, 2008 Everybody knows that Canada is a trading nation. Compare the share of trade to total economic output, and Canada ranks close to the top among large industrialized economies. But take away trade with our number one customer, the U.S. economy, and we’re not much of a trading nation at all. In fact, we are really a North American economy, with a limited stake in the rest of the world. What would Canadian trade activity look like if we were truly a diversified trading nation? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_15465.htm?cid=PWC-October-01-2008-E Wed, 01 October 2008 17:00:00 EST 5:49 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no It wasn't supposed to be this way. Sure, by mid-2007 everyone was expecting the U.S. economy to slow. But commodity producers like South Africa were supposed to be immune - the so-called "decoupling" hypothesis. Stephen Poloz South Africa – No Decoupling Here - September 24, 2008 It wasn't supposed to be this way. Sure, by mid-2007 everyone was expecting the U.S. economy to slow. But commodity producers like South Africa were supposed to be immune - the so-called "decoupling" hypothesis. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_15450.htm?cid=PWC-September-24-2008-E Wed, 24 September 2008 17:00:00 EST 5:51 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Energy security led the agenda at last week's XVIII Economic Forum of Central Europe, held in Krynica, Poland. Interest in the topic is not new, but the rise in energy costs over the past year has injected a new sense of urgency into the dialogue. Stephen Poloz Plugging-In to Private Sector Power - September 17, 2008 Energy security led the agenda at last week's XVIII Economic Forum of Central Europe, held in Krynica, Poland. Interest in the topic is not new, but the rise in energy costs over the past year has injected a new sense of urgency into the dialogue. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_15291.htm?cid=PWC-September-17-2008-E Wed, 17 September 2008 17:00:00 EST 5:50 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no No discussion of the world’s potential economic powerhouses is complete without mention of Brazil. Recent exciting changes are enabling Brazil to harness that potential more effectively, and the world’s economies are lining up for a piece of the action. Is Canada among the eager suitors? Peter G. Hall Sharing Brazil’s Success - September 10, 2008 No discussion of the world’s potential economic powerhouses is complete without mention of Brazil. Recent exciting changes are enabling Brazil to harness that potential more effectively, and the world’s economies are lining up for a piece of the action. Is Canada among the eager suitors? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_15264.htm?cid=PWC-September-10-2008-E Wed, 10 September 2008 17:00:00 EST 5:52 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Shipping has been a great barometer of the recent explosion of trade across the planet. Ocean-going carriers have been pushed close to the limit to accommodate vastly increased traffic. But the economic seas have become more stormy, and the shipping industry is feeling the effects. Peter G. Hall When the Ships are Down - September 3, 2008 Shipping has been a great barometer of the recent explosion of trade across the planet. Ocean-going carriers have been pushed close to the limit to accommodate vastly increased traffic. But the economic seas have become more stormy, and the shipping industry is feeling the effects. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_15249.htm?cid=PWC-September-03-2008-E Wed, 3 September 2008 17:00:00 EST 5:46 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no It’s the last thing anyone would expect when we’re all bracing for slowdown. But surging food and energy prices put inflation high on the list of economic worries earlier this year. World prices for food and energy have since slipped back, but inflation fears remain. Will those fears dissipate? Peter G. Hall Inflation’s Great Disappearing Act - August 27, 2008 It’s the last thing anyone would expect when we’re all bracing for slowdown. But surging food and energy prices put inflation high on the list of economic worries earlier this year. World prices for food and energy have since slipped back, but inflation fears remain. Will those fears dissipate? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_15150.htm?cid=PWC-August-27-2008-E Wed, 27 August 2008 17:00:00 EST 6:01 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no The story is getting all too familiar: yet another economy joining the ranks of those succumbing to the slowdown that began in the large economies. Scoping the reach of the slowdown has turned a lot of attention to bellwether trading economies in the Asia-Pacific zone. In this context, recent softening in South Korea shouldn’t be surprising – is it just a rerun of the unfolding global story? Peter G. Hall Weakness from within in South Korea - August 20, 2008 The story is getting all too familiar: yet another economy joining the ranks of those succumbing to the slowdown that began in the large economies. Scoping the reach of the slowdown has turned a lot of attention to bellwether trading economies in the Asia-Pacific zone. In this context, recent softening in South Korea shouldn’t be surprising – is it just a rerun of the unfolding global story? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_15118.htm?cid=PWC-August-20-2008-E Wed, 20 August 2008 17:00:00 EST 5:54 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Metals making the headlines at the moment are bronze, silver and gold. As awards, these metals are a standout. But none of them did particularly well in economics class. That honour goes to copper, the metal that didn’t just excel, but earned a PhD. Over the years, it has tracked movements in the global economy well. What is it telling us now? Peter G. Hall Is copper feeling a bit green these days? - August 13, 2008 Metals making the headlines at the moment are bronze, silver and gold. As awards, these metals are a standout. But none of them did particularly well in economics class. That honour goes to copper, the metal that didn’t just excel, but earned a PhD. Over the years, it has tracked movements in the global economy well. What is it telling us now? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_15116.htm?cid=PWC-August-13-2008-E Wed, 13 August 2008 17:00:00 EST 5:56 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no With just a day to go, all eyes are on Beijing as the world anticipates the 29th modern Olympiad. Excitement over these Games has steadily built, and meticulous preparations mark a thrilling coming of age for the Chinese economy. Billions have been spent on the event, prompting some to predict a post-party recoil. Are these just party poopers, or does the view have some merit? Peter G. Hall Is China set for a post-Olympic pause? - August 6, 2008 With just a day to go, all eyes are on Beijing as the world anticipates the 29th modern Olympiad. Excitement over these Games has steadily built, and meticulous preparations mark a thrilling coming of age for the Chinese economy. Billions have been spent on the event, prompting some to predict a post-party recoil. Are these just party poopers, or does the view have some merit? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_15077.htm?cid=PWC-August-06-2008-E Wed, 06 August 2008 17:00:00 EST 5:26 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no It is the forecaster’s prerogative to revise the outlook. And whether it’s the weather, a flight arrival or the economy, the closer we are to the event, the clearer the forecast becomes. Recent turmoil has prompted sizable changes to the near-term economic outlook. What are pundits now saying? Peter G. Hall Forecasters are sharpening their pencils - July 30, 2008 It is the forecaster’s prerogative to revise the outlook. And whether it’s the weather, a flight arrival or the economy, the closer we are to the event, the clearer the forecast becomes. Recent turmoil has prompted sizable changes to the near-term economic outlook. What are pundits now saying? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_15045.htm?cid=PWC-July-30-2008-E Wed, 30 July 2008 17:00:00 EST 5:42 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no The Irish renaissance is one of the most dramatic economic transformations of our time. Growth has been on an uninterrupted tear for over two decades, making Ireland the envy of Western economies. But things have recently taken a dramatic turn for the worse. Is this a fleeting development, or is the Celtic tiger in serious trouble? Peter G. Hall Has the Celtic tiger been tamed? - July 23, 2008 The Irish renaissance is one of the most dramatic economic transformations of our time. Growth has been on an uninterrupted tear for over two decades, making Ireland the envy of Western economies. But things have recently taken a dramatic turn for the worse. Is this a fleeting development, or is the Celtic tiger in serious trouble? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_15036.htm?cid=PWC-July-23-2008-E Wed, 23 July 2008 17:00:00 EST 5:52 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no For most Canadian exporters, 2008 will be a year of red ink. Few exporting industries are exempt from the recession currently hitting the trade sector, which is weighing heavily on overall economic growth this year. Getting out of this predicament depends on a lot of factors, not the least of which is the fear factor. How are Canadian exporters feeling about their prospects? Peter G. Hall Exporter jitters deepen - July 16, 2008 For most Canadian exporters, 2008 will be a year of red ink. Few exporting industries are exempt from the recession currently hitting the trade sector, which is weighing heavily on overall economic growth this year. Getting out of this predicament depends on a lot of factors, not the least of which is the fear factor. How are Canadian exporters feeling about their prospects? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_15014.htm?cid=PWC-July-16-2008-E Wed, 16 July 2008 17:00:00 EST 5:54 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Almost two years old and counting, the US housing market crash is still grabbing headlines. It’s no wonder, given the dramatic plunge, its secondary effects and scant signs of recovery. But the US isn’t alone anymore. Housing markets are now faltering in other key economies. Peter G. Hall Housing not just a US problem - July 9, 2008 Almost two years old and counting, the US housing market crash is still grabbing headlines. It’s no wonder, given the dramatic plunge, its secondary effects and scant signs of recovery. But the US isn’t alone anymore. Housing markets are now faltering in other key economies. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_14965.htm?cid=PWC-July-09-2008-E Wed, 09 July 2008 17:00:00 EST 5:45 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Open any Canadian newspaper these days, and you are likely to hear about layoffs, shutdowns, and other gloomy pronouncements among Canada’s exporters. Energy exporters and parts of the agri-food sector are largely exempt from this talk. Most other industries are struggling, thanks to slower demand and a high currency. But some in these stressed sectors are bucking the trend. Peter G. Hall Who’s bucking Canada’s export recession? - July 2, 2008 Open any Canadian newspaper these days, and you are likely to hear about layoffs, shutdowns, and other gloomy pronouncements among Canada’s exporters. Energy exporters and parts of the agri-food sector are largely exempt from this talk. Most other industries are struggling, thanks to slower demand and a high currency. But some in these stressed sectors are bucking the trend. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_14957.htm?cid=PWC-July-02-2008-E Wed, 02 July 2008 17:00:00 EST 5:42 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no One of the marvels of recent economic developments is the surge in commodity prices. It wasn’t anticipated, but it has persisted, and the debate about its causes rages on. Two key views have emerged: on one side, those who feel it’s mostly about supply and demand fundamentals, and on the other, those who see a heavy speculative element. Does the latter side have a point? Peter G. Hall Plenty of incentive to speculate - June 25, 2008 One of the marvels of recent economic developments is the surge in commodity prices. It wasn’t anticipated, but it has persisted, and the debate about its causes rages on. Two key views have emerged: on one side, those who feel it’s mostly about supply and demand fundamentals, and on the other, those who see a heavy speculative element. Does the latter side have a point? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_14848.htm?cid=PWC-JUne-25-2008-E Wed, 25 June 2008 17:00:00 EST 5:44 Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no It's been seven and a half years since I began writing these weekly commentaries. That's a lot of articles. A perusal of the archives serves as a nice reminder of the wide range of issues that have preoccupied us in these volatile times. Stephen Poloz It's Been A Pleasure - June 18, 2008 It's been seven and a half years since I began writing these weekly commentaries. That's a lot of articles. A perusal of the archives serves as a nice reminder of the wide range of issues that have preoccupied us in these volatile times. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_14825.htm?cid=PWC-JUne-18-2008-E Wed, 18 June 2008 17:00:00 EST 5:44 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Central banks around the world have shifted their collective focus in recent weeks. Those who have been most aggressive in lowering interest rates have gone on hold. Those more hesitant to ease in the first place have tightened their rhetoric. At the core of these moves is a renewed concern about inflation pressures. But if the global economy is slowing, why the inflation fears? Peter G. Hall Will the new stagflation persist? - June 11, 2008 Central banks around the world have shifted their collective focus in recent weeks. Those who have been most aggressive in lowering interest rates have gone on hold. Those more hesitant to ease in the first place have tightened their rhetoric. At the core of these moves is a renewed concern about inflation pressures. But if the global economy is slowing, why the inflation fears? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_14744.htm?cid=PWC-JUne-11-2008-E Wed, 11 June 2008 17:00:00 EST 5:43 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no At roughly 5% annually, world GDP growth from 2004-07 was well above its speed limit. This put a lot of pressure on the planet’s resources, and tested the limits of existing infrastructure – particularly in emerging markets. The Southern Cone is no exception, facing critical constraints in energy infrastructure. Will the region’s growing energy deficit constrict near-term growth? Peter G. Hall The Southern Cone’s New Deficit - June 4, 2008 At roughly 5% annually, world GDP growth from 2004-07 was well above its speed limit. This put a lot of pressure on the planet’s resources, and tested the limits of existing infrastructure – particularly in emerging markets. The Southern Cone is no exception, facing critical constraints in energy infrastructure. Will the region’s growing energy deficit constrict near-term growth? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_14720.htm?cid=PWC-JUne-04-2008-E Wed, 04 June 2008 17:00:00 EST 5:46 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no There hasn’t been much in economic news to brighten the spirits recently. Losses due to the sub-prime crisis continue to mount, soaring commodity prices are biting into disposable income, and economic data shout that world production is slowing. In a little under a year, general economic sentiment has swiftly changed from sanguine to sour. How bad has the mood shift been? Peter G. Hall Gloom is Growing, and Going Global - May 28, 2008 There hasn’t been much in economic news to brighten the spirits recently. Losses due to the sub-prime crisis continue to mount, soaring commodity prices are biting into disposable income, and economic data shout that world production is slowing. In a little under a year, general economic sentiment has swiftly changed from sanguine to sour. How bad has the mood shift been? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_14697.htm?cid=PWC-May-28-2008-E Wed, 28 May 2008 17:00:00 EST 6:16 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Canada’s exports are in recession this year, putting a tight squeeze on the economy. But not all exporters are sharing the pain. While many are seeing double-digit declines in orders, certain others can barely keep up with demand. These contrasts have a strong regional slant that has led to a quick role reversal, turning “have” provinces into have-not’s, and vice versa. Will it last? Peter G. Hall Prairie exports buck the trend - May 21, 2008 Canada’s exports are in recession this year, putting a tight squeeze on the economy. But not all exporters are sharing the pain. While many are seeing double-digit declines in orders, certain others can barely keep up with demand. These contrasts have a strong regional slant that has led to a quick role reversal, turning “have” provinces into have-not’s, and vice versa. Will it last? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_14656.htm?cid=PWC-May-21-2008-E Wed, 21 May 2008 17:00:00 EST 6:15 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no The credit crunch is now in its ninth month, prompting some to ask whether the U.S. could enter a period of Japanese-style deflation or another 1930’s-style depression as a consequence. The general feeling is that an astute and fast-acting Federal Reserve can prevent such an outcome. Nevertheless, it is worth thinking about past episodes for insights into the current situation. Stephen Poloz Remembering the Victorian Depression - May 14, 2008 The credit crunch is now in its ninth month, prompting some to ask whether the U.S. could enter a period of Japanese-style deflation or another 1930’s-style depression as a consequence. The general feeling is that an astute and fast-acting Federal Reserve can prevent such an outcome. Nevertheless, it is worth thinking about past episodes for insights into the current situation. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_14616.htm?cid=PWC-May-14-2008-E Wed, 14 May 2008 17:00:00 EST 6:30 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no The sun has shone steadily on the US economy for well over a decade – long enough that many forgot about rainy days. And with the memory lapse, saving for a rainy day became a long-lost practice. But the rain has begun to fall, and a prolonged wet spell is forecast. With savings rates perilously low, US consumers may suddenly get frugal. The consequences would be grim. Peter G. Hall Rainy Day Savings Darken US Outlook - May 07, 2008 The sun has shone steadily on the US economy for well over a decade – long enough that many forgot about rainy days. And with the memory lapse, saving for a rainy day became a long-lost practice. But the rain has begun to fall, and a prolonged wet spell is forecast. With savings rates perilously low, US consumers may suddenly get frugal. The consequences would be grim. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_14541.htm?cid=PWC-May-07-2008-E Wed, 07 May 2008 17:00:00 EST 6:19 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no The world economy today is a study in contrasts – slow growth here, overly rapid growth there, inflation pressures and rising interest rates in some quarters and central banks slashing rates in others. This duality is clear within some countries, too, including Canada, and explains a lot. Stephen Poloz Two-Speed Global Economy Explains a Lot - April 30, 2008 The world economy today is a study in contrasts – slow growth here, overly rapid growth there, inflation pressures and rising interest rates in some quarters and central banks slashing rates in others. This duality is clear within some countries, too, including Canada, and explains a lot. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_14503.htm?cid=PWC-April-30-2008-E Wed, 30 Apr 2008 17:00:00 EST 6:33 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Markets have been in denial for awhile, but no more – the global slowdown has arrived. The successive releases of new and gloomier data, and new revelations of excessive spending and investment, and the like, are all the stuff of downturn economics. The mood has rapidly changed from whether, to when and how deep the slowdown will be. Everyone is asking, “Now what?” Peter G. Hall Now what? - April 23, 2008 Markets have been in denial for awhile, but no more – the global slowdown has arrived. The successive releases of new and gloomier data, and new revelations of excessive spending and investment, and the like, are all the stuff of downturn economics. The mood has rapidly changed from whether, to when and how deep the slowdown will be. Everyone is asking, “Now what?”If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_14496.htm?cid=PWC-April-23-2008-E Wed, 23 Apr 2008 17:00:00 EST 6:15 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no The auto sector has traditionally been front and centre when it comes to understanding Canadian export performance. But recent trends have taken the sector down a notch in relative importance, and the outlook for 2008 is for more of the same. Stephen Poloz NAFTA’s Auto Sector Evolving - April 16, 2008 The auto sector has traditionally been front and centre when it comes to understanding Canadian export performance. But recent trends have taken the sector down a notch in relative importance, and the outlook for 2008 is for more of the same. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_14471.htm?cid=PWC-April-16-2008-E Wed, 16 Apr 2008 17:00:00 EST 6:21 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Canadian exports rose by an unimpressive 1.4% in 2007. Even so, with the Canadian dollar riding high and the slowdown that emerged in the U.S. economy, it could have been worse. In the circumstances, exporters tapped into EDC's services like never before. Stephen Poloz Exporters Seeking More Risk Management - April 9, 2008 Canadian exports rose by an unimpressive 1.4% in 2007. Even so, with the Canadian dollar riding high and the slowdown that emerged in the U.S. economy, it could have been worse. In the circumstances, exporters tapped into EDC's services like never before. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_14445.htm?cid=PWC-April-09-2008-E Wed, 09 Apr 2008 17:00:00 EST 5:25 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no The Japanese economy is at it again. Economy-watchers expected a poor showing in the final quarter of 2007, but in a repeat of the fall 2006 experience, the economy surprised on the upside, and by a large margin. Is Japan sidestepping the slowing in the rest of the world? Peter G. Hall Japan on shaky ground - April 2, 2008 The Japanese economy is at it again. Economy-watchers expected a poor showing in the final quarter of 2007, but in a repeat of the fall 2006 experience, the economy surprised on the upside, and by a large margin. Is Japan sidestepping the slowing in the rest of the world? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_14417.htm?cid=PWC-April-02-2008-E Wed, 02 Apr 2008 17:00:00 EST 5:51 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no The Canadian and U.S. economies are both slowing, but under the surface they could not be more different. Canada is seeing weak exports and strong domestic demand, whereas the U.S. economy is seeing weak domestic demand and strong exports. Stephen Poloz Exploring America’s Export Success - March 26, 2008 The Canadian and U.S. economies are both slowing, but under the surface they could not be more different. Canada is seeing weak exports and strong domestic demand, whereas the U.S. economy is seeing weak domestic demand and strong exports. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_14397.htm?cid=PWC-March-26-2008-E Wed, 26 Mar 2008 17:00:00 EST 5:43 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no There is continuing angst around China’s vast accumulation of foreign exchange reserves. What will they do with all that money, buy the crown jewels? Switch into euros? No one really knows. Stephen Poloz Putting China’s Kitty in Perspective - March 19, 2008 There is continuing angst around China’s vast accumulation of foreign exchange reserves. What will they do with all that money, buy the crown jewels? Switch into euros? No one really knows. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_14391.htm?cid=PWC-March-19-2008-E Wed, 19 Mar 2008 17:00:00 EST 5:50 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no The marketplace is fast realizing that a global economic slowdown is in the works. Everyone seems to be convinced – except those irrepressibly bullish commodity markets. If slowdown is here, and key markets close to recession, why are commodity prices so high? Stephen Poloz Someone tell commodities there’s a slowdown going on - March 12, 2008 The marketplace is fast realizing that a global economic slowdown is in the works. Everyone seems to be convinced – except those irrepressibly bullish commodity markets. If slowdown is here, and key markets close to recession, why are commodity prices so high? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_14332.htm?cid=PWC-March-12-2008-E Wed, 12 Mar 2008 17:00:00 EST 5:08 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no The profitability of Canadian companies remained strong overall at least until the end of 2007, despite concerns about the economic storm clouds gathering just south of the border. Is the situation unique, and therefore sustainable, or an accident waiting to happen? Stephen Poloz Can profits weather the slowdown? - March 5, 2008 The profitability of Canadian companies remained strong overall at least until the end of 2007, despite concerns about the economic storm clouds gathering just south of the border. Is the situation unique, and therefore sustainable, or an accident waiting to happen? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_14323.htm?cid=PWC-March-5-2008-E Wed, 5 Mar 2008 17:00:00 EST 6:12 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Last year, decoupling was all the rage. Sure, the US economy was going flat, but many asserted that the malaise was more or less confined within US borders. But what was loudly proclaimed mere weeks ago has now gone strangely silent. Is decoupling dead, or has it just gone dormant? Peter G. Hall Is the Slowdown Spreading? Ask Producers - February 27, 2008 Last year, decoupling was all the rage. Sure, the US economy was going flat, but many asserted that the malaise was more or less confined within US borders. But what was loudly proclaimed mere weeks ago has now gone strangely silent. Is decoupling dead, or has it just gone dormant? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_14317.htm?cid=PWC-February-27-2008-E Wed, 27 Feb 2008 17:00:00 EST 5:36 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no What began as an aberration in U.S. commercial paper markets six months ago has become much more, affecting financial institutions and individuals world-wide. What will the fallout be? Stephen Poloz Credit Crunch Symptoms Spreading - February 20, 2008 What began as an aberration in U.S. commercial paper markets six months ago has become much more, affecting financial institutions and individuals world-wide. What will the fallout be? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_14266.htm?cid=PWC-February-20-2008-E Wed, 20 Feb 2008 17:00:00 EST 5:46 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Mexico has demonstrated its resilience through a number of global financial storms in recent years. Can that continue, with the U.S. economy teetering on the edge of recession? Stephen Poloz Mexico Faces America’s Slump - February 13, 2008 Mexico has demonstrated its resilience through a number of global financial storms in recent years. Can that continue, with the U.S. economy teetering on the edge of recession? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_14260.htm?cid=PWC-February-13-2008-E Wed, 13 Feb 2008 17:00:00 EST 5:32 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Housing markets have once again proven their economic prowess. U.S. housing starts fell sharply in mid-2006, fully 18 months ahead of the softening in the broader U.S. economy – a remarkable lead on an economic slowdown that most agree is now going global. So given its foresight, is this keen sage saying anything about impending recovery? Peter G. Hall The Outlook According to Housing: Gloomy - February 6, 2008 Housing markets have once again proven their economic prowess. U.S. housing starts fell sharply in mid-2006, fully 18 months ahead of the softening in the broader U.S. economy – a remarkable lead on an economic slowdown that most agree is now going global. So given its foresight, is this keen sage saying anything about impending recovery? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_14242.htm?cid=PWC-February-06-2008-E Wed, 06 Feb 2008 17:00:00 EST 5:48 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Canada’s exporters were hit with the perfect storm in 2007. Yet the value of exports rose by more than 2% during the year, suggesting an unexpected degree of exporter resilience. EDC’s latest exporter survey shows, however, that exporter confidence wilted in the final weeks of the year. Stephen Poloz Exporters More Brave than Resilient - January 30, 2008 Canada’s exporters were hit with the perfect storm in 2007. Yet the value of exports rose by more than 2% during the year, suggesting an unexpected degree of exporter resilience. EDC’s latest exporter survey shows, however, that exporter confidence wilted in the final weeks of the year. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_14212.htm?cid=PWC-January-30-2008-E Wed, 30 Jan 2008 17:00:00 EST 5:37 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Oil prices have broken below the psychologically-important $90 level, leading speculators who have bet heavily on $100-plus oil to consider bailing out of the market. For real consumers, in contrast, this is good news – and the question is, how much better can it get? Stephen Poloz How low can oil prices go? - January 23, 2008 Oil prices have broken below the psychologically-important $90 level, leading speculators who have bet heavily on $100-plus oil to consider bailing out of the market. For real consumers, in contrast, this is good news – and the question is, how much better can it get? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_14193.htm?cid=PWC-January-23-2008-E Wed, 23 Jan 2008 17:00:00 EST 6:00 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Despite six years of U.S. dollar depreciation, international trade imbalances remain a major preoccupation for financial markets and policymakers alike. What is in prospect for 2008? Stephen Poloz U.S. Trade Imbalance Receding - January 16, 2008 Despite six years of U.S. dollar depreciation, international trade imbalances remain a major preoccupation for financial markets and policymakers alike. What is in prospect for 2008? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_14184.htm?cid=PWC-January-16-2008-E Wed, 16 Jan 2008 17:00:00 EST 5:48 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Twenty years have passed since the signing of the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, which went into effect 19 years ago. It’s a good time to check the report card, to see how we are doing. Stephen Poloz The Canada-U.S. FTA: 20 Years After - January 9, 2008 Twenty years have passed since the signing of the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, which went into effect 19 years ago. It’s a good time to check the report card, to see how we are doing. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_14127.htm?cid=PWC-January-09-2008-E Wed, 09 Jan 2008 17:00:00 EST 6:15 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Each year, just before the holidays, we take a look back and recall the surprises that took place in the previous 12 months. 2007 was loaded with candidates. Stephen Poloz Surprise of the Year: Deflation Dissipation - December 19, 2007 Each year, just before the holidays, we take a look back and recall the surprises that took place in the previous 12 months. 2007 was loaded with candidates. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_14089.htm?cid=PWC-December-19-2007-E Wed, 19 Dec 2007 17:00:00 EST 5:41 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no We hear about labour shortages a lot – there are not enough doctors, carpenters, plumbers, or skilled workers in general (except, perhaps, economists). This is becoming a global problem. Stephen Poloz Labour Shortages are Global - December 12, 2007 We hear about labour shortages a lot – there are not enough doctors, carpenters, plumbers, or skilled workers in general (except, perhaps, economists). This is becoming a global problem. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_14064.htm?cid=PWC-December-12-2007-E Wed, 12 Dec 2007 17:00:00 EST 5:17 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Those of us with grey hair have noticed that there are a lot of parallels between our current economic situation and that of the 1970s. But there are differences, too, and these are important enough to suggest that things will be different this time. Stephen Poloz Back to the 70s: That was then, this is now - December 5, 2007 Those of us with grey hair have noticed that there are a lot of parallels between our current economic situation and that of the 1970s. But there are differences, too, and these are important enough to suggest that things will be different this time. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_14060.htm?cid=PWC-December-05-2007-E Wed, 05 Dec 2007 17:00:00 EST 6:06 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no For any country to win its fair share of global investment has always been difficult. Poland has been doing well at the investment game, but the competition is about to get a lot tougher. Stephen Poloz Poland Playing the Investment Game Well - November 28, 2007 For any country to win its fair share of global investment has always been difficult. Poland has been doing well at the investment game, but the competition is about to get a lot tougher. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_14050.htm?cid=PWC-November-28-2007-E Wed, 28 Nov 2007 17:00:00 EST 5:11 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no A visit to Boomtown, Saudi Arabia incites awe, while at the same time helping to dispel certain fears. Although the place is not without problems, opportunities abound. Stephen Poloz A Kingdom Rich in Opportunity - November 21, 2007 A visit to Boomtown, Saudi Arabia incites awe, while at the same time helping to dispel certain fears. Although the place is not without problems, opportunities abound. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_14028.htm?cid=PWC-November-21-2007-E Wed, 21 Nov 2007 17:00:00 EST 5:14 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Black gold is on a tear again. Oil prices are currently within a hair of the psychologically-sensitive $100 mark, and the trajectory is steep. This is perhaps good news for the oil patch, but given oil’s effect on the Canadian dollar, many are worried. Will the price spike last? Stephen Poloz Bubble, Bubble, Oil in Trouble? - November 14, 2007 Black gold is on a tear again. Oil prices are currently within a hair of the psychologically-sensitive $100 mark, and the trajectory is steep. This is perhaps good news for the oil patch, but given oil’s effect on the Canadian dollar, many are worried. Will the price spike last? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_13910.htm?cid=PWC-November-14-2007-E Wed, 14 Nov 2007 17:00:00 EST 5:42 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no High and rising prices for metals, oil and food have put the global economy on two independent growth tracks. The adjustments this is fostering can be painful, and there is no let-up in sight. Stephen Poloz Canada’s Two-Track Economy to Persist - November 7, 2007 High and rising prices for metals, oil and food have put the global economy on two independent growth tracks. The adjustments this is fostering can be painful, and there is no let-up in sight. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_13909.htm?cid=PWC-November-11-2007-E Wed, 07 Nov 2007 17:00:00 EST 5:03 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Canada’s overall export performance is forecast to remain lacklustre in 2008. And there will continue to be a wide range of experience across specific export markets and particular sectors. Stephen Poloz Exporter Situation to Worsen Before Improving - October 31, 2007 Canada’s overall export performance is forecast to remain lacklustre in 2008. And there will continue to be a wide range of experience across specific export markets and particular sectors. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_13898.htm?cid=PWC-October-31-2007-E Wed, 31 Oct 2007 17:00:00 EST 5:42 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Many think of central banks as powerful institutions, able to use their capital to defend their currencies against the uncertain ebbs and flows of the marketplace. But a recent survey by the Bank for International Settlements gives a better idea of what central banks are up against. Stephen Poloz Global Forex Flows Titanic - October 24, 2007 Many think of central banks as powerful institutions, able to use their capital to defend their currencies against the uncertain ebbs and flows of the marketplace. But a recent survey by the Bank for International Settlements gives a better idea of what central banks are up against. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_13897.htm?cid=PWC-October-24-2007-E Wed, 24 Oct 2007 17:00:00 EST 5:23 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Exchange rate forecasts are generally built on a model of economic fundamentals. However, exchange rates have been known to stray from their fundamentals for long periods of time, so companies need an adjustment strategy even if they believe the currency will eventually ease. Stephen Poloz How American Companies Dealt with an Overvalued Dollar - October 17, 2007 Exchange rate forecasts are generally built on a model of economic fundamentals. However, exchange rates have been known to stray from their fundamentals for long periods of time, so companies need an adjustment strategy even if they believe the currency will eventually ease. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_13862.htm?cid=PWC-October-17-2007-E Wed, 17 Oct 2007 17:00:00 EST 5:40 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no With the Canadian loonie flying alongside the American eagle, it is easy to forget that just 200 days ago the former was cruising 15 cents below the latter. How, exactly, did we get here? Stephen Poloz Is loonie strength due merely to eagle weakness? - October 10, 2007 With the Canadian loonie flying alongside the American eagle, it is easy to forget that just 200 days ago the former was cruising 15 cents below the latter. How, exactly, did we get here? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_13793.htm?cid=PWC-October-10-2007-E Wed, 10 Oct 2007 17:00:00 EST 5:25 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no A recent visit to Argentina and Chile reveals a singular preoccupation in the region. Specifically, local business people are watching the financial market turmoil associated with America’s sub-prime mortgage market, and wondering what implications it will have for them. Stephen Poloz Will the South be resilient to Northern turmoil? - October 3, 2007 A recent visit to Argentina and Chile reveals a singular preoccupation in the region. Specifically, local business people are watching the financial market turmoil associated with America’s sub-prime mortgage market, and wondering what implications it will have for them. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_13777.htm?cid=PWC-October-03-2007-E Wed, 03 Oct 2007 17:00:00 EST 5:18 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Just two months ago, central banks around the world were almost unanimously fixated on budding inflation pressures. Financial market turmoil in August changed the tune overnight, and economic slowdown is now the big worry. Except in China. The unstoppable economy is still facing capacity constraints, and price movements are illustrating the strain. Stephen Poloz China Still Struggling to Contain Inflation - September 26, 2007 Just two months ago, central banks around the world were almost unanimously fixated on budding inflation pressures. Financial market turmoil in August changed the tune overnight, and economic slowdown is now the big worry. Except in China. The unstoppable economy is still facing capacity constraints, and price movements are illustrating the strain. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_13754.htm?cid=PWC-September-26-2007-E Wed, 26 Sep 2007 17:00:00 EST 5:18 Stephen Poloz, Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no At the heart of the slowdown emerging in the U.S. economy is an outright recession in the housing sector. Although many companies, both in Canada and abroad, will feel the effects of this, none are more directly impacted than Canada's wood product manufacturers. Stephen Poloz Wood Producers Caught In a Vise - September 19, 2007 At the heart of the slowdown emerging in the U.S. economy is an outright recession in the housing sector. Although many companies, both in Canada and abroad, will feel the effects of this, none are more directly impacted than Canada's wood product manufacturers. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_13682.htm?cid=PWC-September-19-2007-E Wed, 19 Sep 2007 17:00:00 EST 5:24 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no The world economic outlook appears to be especially uncertain at the moment, as evidenced by increased financial volatility as investors seek new direction. And the key to the outlook is the American consumer, on whom the world economy has persistently relied. Stephen Poloz American Consumer Psychology - September 12, 2007 The world economic outlook appears to be especially uncertain at the moment, as evidenced by increased financial volatility as investors seek new direction. And the key to the outlook is the American consumer, on whom the world economy has persistently relied. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_13651.htm?cid=PWC-September-12-2007-E Wed, 12 Sep 2007 17:00:00 EST 5:10 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Although economists examine a complex array of statistics when assessing the health of an economy, nothing says more than the underlying profitability of its companies. Good profits are generally associated with secure jobs, higher investment spending and good tax revenues. Stephen Poloz Positive Profit Picture Hides Underlying Stresses - September 5, 2007 Although economists examine a complex array of statistics when assessing the health of an economy, nothing says more than the underlying profitability of its companies. Good profits are generally associated with secure jobs, higher investment spending and good tax revenues. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_13612.htm?cid=PWC-September-05-2007-E Wed, 05 Sep 2007 17:00:00 EST 6:09 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Probably the most oft-mentioned problem facing the world economy and financial markets is the U.S. trade deficit. This has been the case for the past five years, yet not much has happened. Stephen Poloz America’s Trade Deficit: Still worrisome after all these years? - August 29, 2007 Probably the most oft-mentioned problem facing the world economy and financial markets is the U.S. trade deficit. This has been the case for the past five years, yet not much has happened. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_13590.htm?cid=PWC-August-29-2007-E Wed, 29 Aug 2007 17:00:00 EST 5:48 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no A key source of comfort during the financial turmoil of recent weeks has been the consensus that the world economy remains strong. This is important, for it means that even if the financial contagion continues to spread, the world economy will prove resilient to the shock. Stephen Poloz At least the rest of the world is strong… right? - August 22, 2007 A key source of comfort during the financial turmoil of recent weeks has been the consensus that the world economy remains strong. This is important, for it means that even if the financial contagion continues to spread, the world economy will prove resilient to the shock. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_13579.htm?cid=PWC-August-22-2007-E Wed, 22 Aug 2007 17:00:00 EST 5:30 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no High labour costs are a prominent feature of Europe’s economic landscape. To outsiders, generous wage, vacation and sick-leave provisions, together with a tight social safety net, are the stuff of dreams. Globalisation has put continental Europe’s labour costs under the microscope, and Germany’s collaborative response has helped it to emerge as a regional growth leader. Peter G. Hall Tackling High European Labour Costs - August 15, 2007 High labour costs are a prominent feature of Europe’s economic landscape. To outsiders, generous wage, vacation and sick-leave provisions, together with a tight social safety net, are the stuff of dreams. Globalisation has put continental Europe’s labour costs under the microscope, and Germany’s collaborative response has helped it to emerge as a regional growth leader. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_13532.htm?cid=PWC-August-15-2007-E Wed, 15 Aug 2007 17:00:00 EST 5:24 Stephen Poloz, Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Global financial markets have witnessed a series of convulsions in recent weeks, whether in stocks, bonds or currencies. Many are describing it as a healthy correction, because some markets had risen too far, too fast – in other words, the bull run is intact, but taking a breather. Stephen Poloz Beneath the Surface, Eroding Confidence - August 08, 2007 Global financial markets have witnessed a series of convulsions in recent weeks, whether in stocks, bonds or currencies. Many are describing it as a healthy correction, because some markets had risen too far, too fast – in other words, the bull run is intact, but taking a breather. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_13471.htm?cid=PWC-August-08-2007-E Wed, 08 Aug 2007 17:00:00 EST 5:14 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Economists have at their disposal an amazing array of statistics on the economy – production, sales, shipments, exports and imports, employment, and so on. Rarely do all these statistics offer the same story, and sometimes a single development can truly cloud things. Stephen Poloz Car Production Clouding Economic Signals - August 01, 2007 Economists have at their disposal an amazing array of statistics on the economy – production, sales, shipments, exports and imports, employment, and so on. Rarely do all these statistics offer the same story, and sometimes a single development can truly cloud things. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_13457.htm?cid=PWC-August-01-2007-E Wed, 01 Aug 2007 17:00:00 EST 5:14 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Canada's exports have been stuck in low gear for some time, and the strong dollar and U.S. slowdown point to more weakness ahead. But our exports to South America are booming. Stephen Poloz Exports to South America Booming - July 25, 2007 Canada's exports have been stuck in low gear for some time, and the strong dollar and U.S. slowdown point to more weakness ahead. But our exports to South America are booming. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_13438.htm?cid=PWC-July-25-2007-E Wed, 25 Jul 2007 17:00:00 EST 4:53 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Governments across the world are cashing in on recent good economic times. Sovereign wealth in a wide array of nations has ballooned over the last few years, and further growth is likely in the coming years. Managing these swollen funds is becoming a growing challenge. Peter G. Hall Managing the Surging Wealth of Nations - July 18, 2007 Governments across the world are cashing in on recent good economic times. Sovereign wealth in a wide array of nations has ballooned over the last few years, and further growth is likely in the coming years. Managing these swollen funds is becoming a growing challenge. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_13420.htm?cid=PWC-July-18-2007-E Wed, 18 Jul 2007 17:00:00 EST 5:25 Stephen Poloz, Peter G. Hall, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Last spring, EDC Economics was forecasting no growth in Canada's exports for 2007. Recent developments are leading us to upgrade this outlook modestly. Stephen Poloz Export Outlook Upgrade - July 11, 2007 Last spring, EDC Economics was forecasting no growth in Canada's exports for 2007. Recent developments are leading us to upgrade this outlook modestly. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_13387.htm?cid=PWC-July-11-2007-E Wed, 11 Jul 2007 17:00:00 EST 4:54 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Exporters and foreign investors face a wide array of risks when doing business abroad. Political risk may be the least understood, leading some companies to ignore it altogether and take unnecessary risks, while others worry too much about it and pass on key growth opportunities. Stephen Poloz Demystifying Political Risk - July 04, 2007 Exporters and foreign investors face a wide array of risks when doing business abroad. Political risk may be the least understood, leading some companies to ignore it altogether and take unnecessary risks, while others worry too much about it and pass on key growth opportunities. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_13357.htm?cid=PWC-July-04-2007-E Wed, 04 Jul 2007 17:00:00 EST 5:19 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Financial markets are priced for perfection, with each warning brushed off by investors. Should we be more worried, or is it really different this time? Stephen Poloz Is it really different this time? - June 27, 2007 Financial markets are priced for perfection, with each warning brushed off by investors. Should we be more worried, or is it really different this time? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_13348.htm?cid=PWC-June-27-2007-E Wed, 27 Jun 2007 17:00:00 EST 4:59 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Canadian manufacturers and their employees are deeply worried about the future. There have been job losses and plant shutdowns. So, why is unemployment in Canada at a 30-year low? Stephen Poloz Canadian Labour Market Remaking Itself - June 20, 2007 Canadian manufacturers and their employees are deeply worried about the future. There have been job losses and plant shutdowns. So, why is unemployment in Canada at a 30-year low? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_13204.htm?cid=PWC-June-20-2007-E Wed, 20 Jun 2007 17:00:00 EST 5:56 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Canada's aerospace sector has seen it all in the past five years - boom, bust, and everything in between. Today, the sector still finds itself flying both high and low, at the same time. Stephen Poloz Aerospace Exports Flying High, Flying Low - June 13, 2007 Canada's aerospace sector has seen it all in the past five years - boom, bust, and everything in between. Today, the sector still finds itself flying both high and low, at the same time. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_13190.htm?cid=PWC-June-13-2007-E Wed, 13 Jun 2007 17:00:00 EST 5:34 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Recent figures show that the U.S. economy did a face-plant in 2007Q1, while Canada was humming. This has cemented the perception that Canada is decoupling from the U.S. Stephen Poloz Is Canada decoupling from the U.S.? - June 6, 2007 Recent figures show that the U.S. economy did a face-plant in 2007Q1, while Canada was humming. This has cemented the perception that Canada is decoupling from the U.S. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_13168.htm?cid=PWC-June-06-2007-E Wed, 6 Jun 2007 17:00:00 EST 5:34 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Even those who have heard about the various forays into the global economy by Canadian banks tend to think of them as a domestic business. Well, think again. Stephen Poloz Canada's Banks Are Exporters too - May 30, 2007 Even those who have heard about the various forays into the global economy by Canadian banks tend to think of them as a domestic business. Well, think again. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_13028.htm?cid=PWC-May-30-2007-E Wed, 30 May 2007 17:00:00 EST 4:58 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Is your currency rising unexpectedly? Blame the yen carry trade! Can't figure out why copper prices are so volatile? Blame the yen carry trade! These days, the yen carry trade is being blamed for everything, and is popping up in everyday conversation. Stephen Poloz Blame the Yen Carry Trade - May 23, 2007 Is your currency rising unexpectedly? Blame the yen carry trade! Can't figure out why copper prices are so volatile? Blame the yen carry trade! These days, the yen carry trade is being blamed for everything, and is popping up in everyday conversation. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_12893.htm?cid=PWC-May-23-2007-E Wed, 23 May 2007 17:00:00 EST 4:58 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Just like last year, Canada's beloved loonie has decided it is time to head north, and is surprising everyone with how far it is willing to go. The real question, though, is where will it choose to nest? Stephen Poloz Loonie's Northern Flight - May 16, 2007 Just like last year, Canada's beloved loonie has decided it is time to head north, and is surprising everyone with how far it is willing to go. The real question, though, is where will it choose to nest? If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_12873.htm?cid=PWC-May-16-2007-E Wed, 16 May 2007 17:00:00 EST 5:06 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Mexico has come a long way since the so-called Tequila crisis of 1994. Nowadays, Mexico gets caught up in global volatility just like everyone else, but is on the resilient end of the spectrum. Stephen Poloz Mexican Resilience Increasing - May 9, 2007 Mexico has come a long way since the so-called Tequila crisis of 1994. Nowadays, Mexico gets caught up in global volatility just like everyone else, but is on the resilient end of the spectrum. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_12825.htm?cid=PWC-May-09-2007-E Wed, 9 May 2007 17:00:00 EST 5:45 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Australia is becoming a sizeable market for Canadian exports, while being a tough competitor against Canada in third markets at the same time. Australia’s trade success warrants more study. Stephen Poloz Something Good Going Down Under - May 2, 2007 Australia is becoming a sizeable market for Canadian exports, while being a tough competitor against Canada in third markets at the same time. Australia’s trade success warrants more study. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_12789.htm?cid=PWC-May-02-2007-E Wed, 2 May 2007 17:00:00 EST 5:51 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Change is a constant in our lives today, and adaptability is highly rewarded in business. But only rarely is a change so fundamental that it changes everything – a paradigm shift. Stephen Poloz Adapting to the New Trade Paradigm - April 25, 2007 Change is a constant in our lives today, and adaptability is highly rewarded in business. But only rarely is a change so fundamental that it changes everything – a paradigm shift. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_12677.htm?cid=PWC-Apr-25-2007-E Wed, 25 Apr 2007 17:00:00 EST 5:44 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no EDC Economics has just released its latest Global Export Forecast, and the story is a discouraging one for exporters. After a flat overall performance in 2006, exporters appear to be headed for two more years of little or no growth in total export sales. Stephen Poloz Exports to Remain Flat for Two More Years - April 18, 2007 EDC Economics has just released its latest Global Export Forecast, and the story is a discouraging one for exporters. After a flat overall performance in 2006, exporters appear to be headed for two more years of little or no growth in total export sales. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_12637.htm?cid=PWC-Apr-18-2007-E Wed, 18 Apr 2007 17:00:00 EST 6:08 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Economies all have speed limits. Let an economy grow above its speed limit for any length of time, and inflation results. That’s why central banks are so preoccupied with staying within the speed limit, even though most individuals would prefer stronger growth, other things equal. Stephen Poloz Global Growth Speed Limit Edging Higher - April 11, 2007 Economies all have speed limits. Let an economy grow above its speed limit for any length of time, and inflation results. That’s why central banks are so preoccupied with staying within the speed limit, even though most individuals would prefer stronger growth, other things equal. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_12609.htm?cid=PWC-Apr-11-2007-E Wed, 11 Apr 2007 17:00:00 EST 5:59 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no China has now accumulated more than $1 trillion in foreign exchange reserves. Crossing this symbolic threshold has led many to underscore the destabilization potential of the situation. Stephen Poloz China’s Trillion Dollar Nest Egg - April 4, 2007 China has now accumulated more than $1 trillion in foreign exchange reserves. Crossing this symbolic threshold has led many to underscore the destabilization potential of the situation. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_12604.htm?cid=PWC-Apr-04-2007-E Wed, 04 Apr 2007 17:00:00 EST 5:48 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no The importance of trade to Canadian prosperity has increased a lot in the past 40 years. Since the dawn of the new millennium, though, Canada has been losing ground in the trade domain. Stephen Poloz Canada Losing Ground in Trade - March 28, 2007 The importance of trade to Canadian prosperity has increased a lot in the past 40 years. Since the dawn of the new millennium, though, Canada has been losing ground in the trade domain. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_12591.htm?cid=PWC-Mar-28-2007-E Wed, 28 Mar 2007 17:00:00 EST 5:39 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no The world is addicted to oil, as everyone knows. But there are few places with an addiction as deep, and as potentially destabilizing, as in Venezuela. Stephen Poloz Venezuela’s Oil Addiction - March 21, 2007 The world is addicted to oil, as everyone knows. But there are few places with an addiction as deep, and as potentially destabilizing, as in Venezuela. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_12564.htm?cid=PWC-Mar-21-2007-E Wed, 21 Mar 2007 17:00:00 EST 5:22 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no George W. Bush has been blamed for many things. But one that comes up repeatedly is the loss of 3 million manufacturing jobs, which many critics attribute to his trade policies. Stephen Poloz Bush's Lost Jobs - The Fuller Story - March 14, 2007 George W. Bush has been blamed for many things. But one that comes up repeatedly is the loss of 3 million manufacturing jobs, which many critics attribute to his trade policies. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_12354.htm?cid=PWC-Mar-14-2007-E Wed, 14 Mar 2007 17:00:00 EST 5:57 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no The final numbers are now in for Canada’s trade in 2006. Many exporters will remember 2006 as a tough year, but there are some rays of sunshine between those clouds. Stephen Poloz Exports More Diversified in 2006 - March 7, 2007 The final numbers are now in for Canada’s trade in 2006. Many exporters will remember 2006 as a tough year, but there are some rays of sunshine between those clouds. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_12248.htm?cid=PWC-Mar-07-2007-E Thu, 8 Mar 2007 10:00:00 EST 5:57 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no America’s consumers have been carrying the global economy on their shoulders for so long now that we have come to take them for granted. But the ground has shifted beneath their feet in the last few months, so it is worth keeping track of how they are holding up. Stephen Poloz How are America’s consumers holding up? - February 28, 2007 America’s consumers have been carrying the global economy on their shoulders for so long now that we have come to take them for granted. But the ground has shifted beneath their feet in the last few months, so it is worth keeping track of how they are holding up. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_12236.htm?cid=PWC-Feb-28-2007-E Wed, 28 Feb 2007 17:00:00 EST 5:30 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Recent economic news from Japan has been good, so much so that it has people talking about a renaissance and a return to strong growth. The Bank of Japan is even raising interest rates. Stephen Poloz Just another flash in Japan? - February 21, 2007 Recent economic news from Japan has been good, so much so that it has people talking about a renaissance and a return to strong growth. The Bank of Japan is even raising interest rates. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_12216.htm?cid=PWC-Feb-21-2007-E Wed, 21 Feb 2007 17:00:00 EST 5:27 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no Have you ever looked at one of those satellite photos of the earth, taken during night-time? It is truly a remarkable sight, and full of economic meaning, besides. Stephen Poloz City Economics - February 14, 2007 Have you ever looked at one of those satellite photos of the earth, taken during night-time? It is truly a remarkable sight, and full of economic meaning, besides. If you have comments or questions about Weekly Commentary, our email address is podcast@edc.ca. http://www.edc.ca/english/docs/ereports/commentary/publications_12158.htm?cid=PWC-Feb-14-2007-E Wed, 14 Feb 2007 17:00:00 EST 5:51 Stephen Poloz, EDC, Export Development Canada, Canadian no no