Weekly Commentary
EDC's Vice President and Chief Economist Peter G. Hall comments on world economic trends.
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March 2010
Reversal of Profit Plunge Underway - March 3, 2010
February 2010
Commercial Construction: Recovery’s Wrecking Ball? - February 24, 2010Inflation Muted Despite Surging Indexes - February 17, 2010
Woes in Greece Reveal Broader Fiscal Concerns - February 10, 2010
Sustainable Surge in US Growth? - February 3, 2010
January 2010
Back in the Black? Yes and No - January 27, 2010China’s High-Wire Act - January 20, 2010
Exporters See Better Times Ahead - January 13, 2010
Stage Set for a Happier New Year - January 6, 2010
December 2009
Surprise of the Year: The Retreat of Risk - December 16, 2009Gloom in Global Shipping - December 9, 2009
Financial Market Turbulence: A Shock? - December 2, 2009
November 2009
Indonesia: Tiger-in-Waiting - November 25, 2009Recession’s Impact Varies by Industry - November 18, 2009
Path to Recovery Challenging for Canada's Regions - November 11, 2009
Americans are Saving Again - November 4, 2009
October 2009
The Race to Recovery - October 28, 200910 Reasons to Reject Protectionism - October 21, 2009
Global Recession Tests Mexico’s Mettle - October 14, 2009
Land of the Rising Yen - October 7, 2009
September 2009
How Do You Spend $586 billion? - September 30, 2009Bright Future for Panama - September 23, 2009
Dollar Daze – Round 2 - September 16, 2009
There’s No ‘V’ in Consensus - September 9, 2009
Prince Rupert: Port of the Future - September 2, 2009
August 2009
Not Without the Consumer - August 26, 2009What’s Up Down Under? - August 19, 2009
Green Shoots and the US Housing Market - August 12, 2009
It’s All About Inflation Again - August 5, 2009
July 2009
Brasilience - July 29, 2009Unnatural Gas Prices? - July 22, 2009
Western Europe: Leader or Laggard? - July 15, 2008
In the Valley - July 8, 2009
Dazed by the Dollar - July 1, 2009
June 2009
Upsurge in Unemployment - June 24, 2009Exporters’ Abject Pessimism Fades - June 17, 2009
Scuppered Projects Resurfacing - June 10, 2009
Globalization Dented, not Derailed - June 3, 2009
May 2009
No Industry Exempt from Global Downdraft - May 27, 2009Andean Region Holds Promise - May 20, 2009
Recession a Window of Opportunity for India - May 13, 2009
Western Canada: the Bigger the Bubble… - May 6, 2009
April 2009
Restoring Balance - April 29, 2009Is China Reviving? - April 22, 2009
Clues from the US Leading Indicator - April 15, 2009
Good News Beyond the First Quarter? - April 8, 2009
The Poison of Protectionism - April 1, 2009
March 2009
Is US Housing on the Mend? - March 25, 2009Sub-Saharan Setback - March 18, 2009
Paying For All the Stimulus - March 11, 2009
Canadian Trade Tumbles - March 4, 2009
February 2009
GCC Remains Resilient - February 25, 2009Is the Inventory Cycle Dead? - February 18, 2009
Get Used to Job Losses, For Now - February 11, 2009
The Deflation Debate: Myth and Reality - February 4, 2009
January 2009
Are Trade’s Bellwethers Well? - January 28, 2009Don’t Disregard Demography - January 21, 2009
Trade Confidence Falls to Record Low - January 14, 2009
When the seven years of plenty came to an end… - January 7, 2009
December 2008
Surprise of the Year: Keynesianism Revived - December 17, 2008Policy Rates Tumble - December 10, 2008
Construction gets a near-term boost - December 3, 2008
November 2008
Speed of recent change breathtaking - November 26, 2008Where will the credit crunch end? - November 19, 2008
China’s Imported Downturn - November 12, 2008
The Stalwart Greenback - November 5, 2008
October 2008
Weathering the Weather - October 29, 2008Restoring Confidence is Key - October 22, 2008
New Vehicle Platforms Buffer Hard Times - October 15, 2008
Japan’s Moment in the Sun - October 8, 2008
The Diversification Dividend - October 1, 2008
September 2008
South Africa – No Decoupling Here - September 24, 2008Plugging-In to Private Sector Power - September 17, 2008
Sharing Brazil’s Success - September 10, 2008
When the Ships are Down - September 3, 2008
August 2008
Inflation’s Great Disappearing Act - August 27, 2008Weakness from within in South Korea - August 20, 2008
Is copper feeling a bit green these days? - August 13, 2008
Is China set for a post-Olympic pause? - August 6, 2008
July 2008
Forecasters are sharpening their pencils - July 30, 2008Has the Celtic tiger been tamed? - July 23, 2008
Exporter jitters deepen - July 16, 2008
Housing not just a US problem - July 9, 2008
Who’s bucking Canada’s export recession? - July 2, 2008
June 2008
Plenty of incentive to speculate - June 25, 2008It's Been a Pleasure - June 18, 2008
Will the new stagflation persist? - June 11, 2008
The Southern Cone’s New Deficit - June 4, 2008
May 2008
Gloom is Growing, and Going Global - May 28, 2008Prairie exports buck the trend - May 21, 2008
Remembering the Victorian Depression - May 14, 2008
Rainy Day Savings Darken US Outlook - May 7, 2008
April 2008
Two-Speed Global Economy Explains a Lot - April 30, 2008Now what? - April 23, 2008
NAFTA’s Auto Sector Evolving - April 16, 2008
Exporters Seeking More Risk Management - April 9, 2008
Japan on shaky ground - April 2, 2008
March 2008
Exploring America’s Export Success - March 26, 2008Putting China’s Kitty in Perspective - March 19, 2008
Someone tell commodities there’s a slowdown going on - March 12, 2008
Can profits weather the slowdown? - March 5, 2008
February 2008
Is the Slowdown Spreading? Ask Producers - February 27, 2008Credit Crunch Symptoms Spreading - February 20, 2008
Mexico Faces America’s Slump - February 13, 2008
The Outlook According to Housing: Gloomy - February 6, 2008
January 2008
Exporters More Brave than Resilient - January 30, 2008How low can oil prices go? - January 23, 2008
U.S. Trade Imbalance Receding - January 16, 2008
The Canada-U.S. FTA: 20 Years After - January 9, 2008
December 2007
Surprise of the Year: Deflation Dissipation - December 19, 2007Labour Shortages are Global - December 12, 2007
Back to the 70s: That was then, this is now - December 5, 2007
November 2007
Poland Playing the Investment Game Well - November 28, 2007A Kingdom Rich in Opportunity - November 21, 2007
Bubble, Bubble, Oil in Trouble? - November 14, 2007
Canada’s Two-Track Economy to Persist - November 7, 2007
October 2007
Exporter Situation to Worsen Before Improving - October 31, 2007Global Forex Flows Titanic - October 24, 2007
How American Companies Dealt with an Overvalued Dollar - October 17, 2007
Is loonie strength due merely to eagle weakness? - October 10, 2007
Will the South be resilient to Northern turmoil? - October 3, 2007
September 2007
China Still Struggling to Contain Inflation - September 26, 2007Wood Producers Caught In a Vise - September 19, 2007
American Consumer Psychology - September 12, 2007
Positive Profit Picture Hides Underlying Stresses - September 5, 2007
August 2007
America’s Trade Deficit: Still worrisome after all these years? - August 29, 2007At least the rest of the world is strong… right? - August 22, 2007
Tackling High European Labour Costs - August 15, 2007
Beneath the Surface, Eroding Confidence - August 8, 2007
Car Production Clouding Economic Signals - August 1, 2007
July 2007
Exports to South America Booming - July 25, 2007Managing the Surging Wealth of Nations - July 18, 2007
Export Outlook Upgrade - July 11, 2007
Demystifying Political Risk - July 4, 2007
June 2007
Is it really different this time? - June 27, 2007Canadian Labour Market Remaking Itself - June 20, 2007
Aerospace Exports Flying High, Flying Low - June 13, 2007
Is Canada decoupling from the U.S.? - June 6, 2007
May 2007
Canada's Banks Are Exporters too - May 30, 2007Blame the Yen Carry Trade - May 23, 2007
Loonie's Northern Flight - May 16, 2007
Mexican Resilience Increasing - May 9, 2007
Something Good Going Down Under - May 2, 2007
April 2007
Adapting to the New Trade Paradigm - April 25, 2007Exports to Remain Flat for Two More Years - April 18, 2007
Global Growth Speed Limit Edging Higher - April 11, 2007
China’s Trillion Dollar Nest Egg - April 4, 2007
March 2007
Canada Losing Ground in Trade - March 28, 2007Venezuela’s Oil Addiction - March 21, 2007
Bush's Lost Jobs - The Fuller Story - March 14, 2007
Exports More Diversified in 2006 - March 7, 2007
February 2007
How are America’s consumers holding up? - February 28, 2007Just another flash in Japan? - February 21, 2007
City Economics - February 14, 2007
India: Integrative Trader - February 7, 2007
January 2007
China’s Economy Moderating… Maybe - January 31, 2007Oil Relief Still Leaves Policy Quandary - January 24, 2007
Exporter Confidence Still Soft - January 17, 2007
Slowdown Signals Solidifying - January 10, 2007
A New Chapter Begins in Brazil - January 3, 2007
December 2006
Surprise of the Year: The Dog That Barked Just Once - December 20, 2006International Borrowing Boosting Resiliency - December 13, 2006
Two Sides to the Trade Success Story - December 6, 2006
November 2006
Global Synchronization and the U.S. Dollar - November 29, 2006New Realities for Investing Abroad - November 22, 2006
Nigeria: Reform Progress Encouraging - November 15, 2006
Bubbles…and Beyond - November 8, 2006
Copper and Chile, for Better or for Worse - November 1, 2006
October 2006
Can OPEC put a floor under oil prices? - Oct 25, 2006Demographic Abyss? - October 18, 2006
Monitoring the U.S. Slowdown - October 11, 2006
Dubai to keep investing, despite slower growth - October 4, 2006
September 2006
America’s Imbalances – How worried should we be? - September 27, 2006Oil Peaks, Valleys, Plateaus and Plains - September 20, 2006
Coffee Market Under Stress - September 13, 2006
Global Slowdown Not Yet in the Bag - September 6, 2006
August 2006
Profit Picture Positive for Some, Poor for Others - August 30, 2006Auto Sector Still has Underlying Strength - August 23, 2006
Turkish Chickens Come Home to Roost - August 16, 2006
Korea Pointing the Way Downward - August 9, 2006
Oil Money Flowing Both Downstream and Upstream - August 2, 2006
July 2006
Services Trade Often Overlooked - July 26, 2006Specialty Croppers Face Challenging Outlook - July 19, 2006
Exporter Confidence Down Again - July 12, 2006
Engineers in the Sweet Spot - July 5, 2006
June 2006
Free Trade with Chile: What has it delivered? - June 28, 2006The Paris Club at 50 - June 21, 2006
Market Action Symptomatic of Rising Global Risks - June 14, 2006
An Eiffel Tower Made of Copper - June 7, 2006
May 2006
Dollar parity possible – but then what? - May 31, 2006Do energy booms increase inflation risks? - May 24, 2006
U.S. Dollar Weakness is in the Eye of the Beholder - May 17, 2006
Fall of the Wall a Trade Catalyst - May 10, 2006
Oil Market Mainly Political - May 3, 2006
April 2006
Global Slowdown and the Domino Effect - April 26, 2006Singapore – Facilitator Majeure - April 19, 2006
Will protectionism crimp trade growth? - April 12, 2006
Are productivity plans petering out? - April 5, 2006
March 2006
Will Canada-India trade blossom? - March 29, 2006Trade, Foreign Investment Benefiting Canada - March 22, 2006
Big South American Economies Facing Growth Constraints - March 15, 2006
The Loonie’s Speculative Tailwinds - March 8, 2006
Berne Union a Big Trade Facilitator - March 1, 2006
February 2006
Whither global growth? - February 22, 2006Is energy really fuelling Canada’s export engine? - February 15, 2006
Sugar Delivering More Energy - February 8, 2006
Profit Squeeze Getting Worse for Some - February 1, 2006
January 2006
Trade Confidence Falters - January 25, 2006Tracking the Gains from Productivity - January 18, 2006
Brazil’s Touch of Dutch - January 11, 2006
Can exporters repeat in 2006? - January 4, 2006
December 2005
Surprise of the Year: A DVD Player for $39 - December 21, 2005Global Slowdown Already in the Numbers - December 14, 2005
B.C. Fish Fuelling Export Growth - December 7, 2005
November 2005
Global Capital Flows to Ebb in 2006 - November 30, 2005Managing Oil Windfalls - November 23, 2005
Introducing TOM - November 16, 2005
Canadian Dollar Should be Edging Lower - November 9, 2005
2006: Year of the Downgrade - November 2, 2005
October 2005
Temporary Stagflation Still Stressful - October 26, 2005Productivity Upturn Getting Underway - October 19, 2005
What does Dutch disease feel like? - October 12, 2005
Germany, Japan and Reform Prospects - October 5, 2005
September 2005
Central Europe’s Productivity Imperative - September 28, 2005Brazil Faces New Market Test - September 21, 2005
Costly Katrina - September 14, 2005
What are non-energy commodity markets telling us? - September 7, 2005
August 2005
Politics versus Economics, Ecuador-Style - August 31, 2005Oil Driving a Wedge Between the Loonie and the Aussie - August 24, 2005
Productivity Basics - August 17, 2005
Low Bond Yields: A Continuing Saga - August 10, 2005
Mad Cow Roundup - August 3, 2005
July 2005
Yuan Yawn - July 27, 2005Should Italy abandon the euro? - July 20, 2005
U.S. Fiscal Fear Fizzling - July 13, 2005
Exporter Confidence on the Rebound - July 6, 2005
June 2005
Financial Instability Now Part of the System - June 29, 2005Telecom Recovery Dialled In - June 22, 2005
Tighter Monetary Policy, Lower Bond Yields - June 15, 2005
Services Leading Export Growth - June 8, 2005
Chile Dealing with Energy Shortfall - June 1, 2005
May 2005
Exchange Rates in Harmony - May 25, 2005Auto Sector Stronger than it Appears - May 18, 2005
Managing Rising Export Risks - May 11, 2005
Global Textile Market Now Facing Reality - May 4, 2005
April 2005
Export Outlook Steady, not Stellar - April 27, 2005Have oil markets turned the corner? - April 20, 2005
Interest rate spreads: Risk retreat, or par for the course? - April 13, 2005
Mexican Politics and the Power of Economics - April 6, 2005
March 2005
Offshoring a Symptom of Economic Progress - March 30, 2005Canadian Productivity Responding to the Strong Dollar - March 23, 2005
India Worth Exploring - March 16, 2005
Construction Sector Looks Pretty Promising - March 9, 2005
Mexico: Countering the China Challenge - March 2, 2005
February 2005
What are bond markets telling us? - February 23, 2005Debt Burden Worries Legitimate, but Overdone - February 16, 2005
Thanks, Mr. G. - February 9, 2005
Is China slowing, or not? - February 2, 2005
January 2005
G7 to the rescue – but where’s the fire? - January 26, 2005Argentina Climbing Out of its Hole - January 19, 2005
Exporter Confidence Flagging - January 12, 2005
Tsunami Impact Still Growing - January 5, 2005
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