Weekly Commentary

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Peter Hall, EDC

COVID-19 and country risk implications

Weekly Commentary November 26, 2020 The strength of the recovery depends upon containing infections as well as government support.

Engineer directs forklift in stockyard

COVID-19: Surveying the damage

Weekly Commentary November 19, 2020 Insights from on-the-ground experiences of Canadian companies.

Female potter fills online orders from home

Spiking COVID-19 cases threaten Canada’s recovery

Weekly Commentary November 12, 2020 Momentum has clearly slowed, and fourth-quarter growth will be much weaker than the bounce-back enjoyed in the third quarter.

Peter Hall, EDC

Top concern: Recovery from COVID-19

Weekly Commentary November 05, 2020 We heard a lot about what’s keeping our key customers up at night.

Peter Hall, EDC

Better than feared, but slow and uneven road ahead

Weekly Commentary October 29, 2020 Despite the massive upheaval caused by the pandemic, global trade bounced back faster than expected.

Peter Hall, EDC

COVID-19: When do I get my job back?

Weekly Commentary October 22, 2020 Improvement is expected to continue, but the recent rise in second-wave infections is expected to slow the progress.

Peter Hall, EDC

COVID-19’s demands on the economy

Weekly Commentary October 15, 2020 As the economy restarts, is it all about demand, or is there more?

Peter Hall, EDC

COVID-19, recovery, and inflation

Weekly Commentary October 08, 2020 Are price hikes lurking around the corner, or are these fears unfounded?

Peter Hall, EDC

COVID-19: Fast won’t last

Weekly Commentary October 01, 2020 We’re already seeing a growth moderation that will test our mettle, and future containment of infections is far from guaranteed.

Peter Hall, EDC

COVID-19 and CETA’s third birthday

Weekly Commentary September 24, 2020 Does this anniversary bring hope for better outcomes on the other side of the current maelstrom?

Peter Hall, EDC

COVID-19: Debt drama

Weekly Commentary September 17, 2020 In 2020, we’ve seen the steepest year-over-year rise in public debt-to-GDP ratios in recent history.

Peter Hall, EDC

What is post-COVID-19 growth going to look like?

Weekly Commentary September 10, 2020 Canadian sectors, like retailing and international trade, look positively V-shaped, and give hope that the rest of the economy might soon follow.

Peter Hall, EDC

COVID-19: The role of pent-up demand

Weekly Commentary September 03, 2020 When economies falter, what brings them back up again?

Peter Hall, EDC

COVID-19 and mechanization

Weekly Commentary August 27, 2020 COVID-19 may boost mechanization of production. Are we ready?

Peter Hall, EDC

COVID-19 and the demand for food

Weekly Commentary August 20, 2020 Food producers, like all other industries, have been hugely affected.

Peter Hall, EDC

COVID-19 and the gold rally

Weekly Commentary August 13, 2020 The world is abuzz over gold’s recent rally to a record high of US$2,000 and beyond.

Peter Hall, EDC

COVID-19: Reading the GDP data

Weekly Commentary August 06, 2020 Dated numbers are still telling scary stories. As such, it’s best to look at the details for signs of true recovery. Things are moving so quickly and radically that the details are more important than ever.

Peter Hall, EDC

COVID-19: Is global trade back up?

Weekly Commentary July 30, 2020 As we wrestle with COVID-19, is international trade back up, backing up, or is there a backup in capacity that’s stalling things?

Peter Hall, EDC

Tracking the COVID-19 economy

Weekly Commentary July 23, 2020 How is Canada weathering the pandemic? Check out EDC’s new Canadian Economic Recovery Tracker.

Ian Tobman, EDC

Top 10 risks living in a COVID world

Weekly Commentary July 16, 2020 EDC’S Top 10 Global Risks identifies the uncertainties facing Canadian businesses

Peter Hall, EDC

COVID-19: Containing the second wave

Weekly Commentary July 09, 2020 Is the fledgling rebound from COVID-19 lockdowns at risk?

Peter Hall, EDC

Trade imminent bounce-back from COVID-19?

Weekly Commentary July 02, 2020 COVID-19’s economic mayhem has given rise to a wide variety of recovery paths

Peter Hall, EDC

Trade confidence among Canadian exporters hits all-time low

Weekly Commentary June 25, 2020 COVID-19 and rising global protectionism concerns push Canadian trade confidence to all-time low

Peter Hall, EDC

COVID-19’s effects anything but even

Weekly Commentary June 18, 2020 COVID-19 has generated no winners—only survivors.

Peter Hall, EDC

COVID-19: A glimmer of hope?

Weekly Commentary June 11, 2020 For Canada, June is looking upbeat.

Peter Hall, EDC

Is COVID-19 the biggest test yet for the retail sector?

Weekly Commentary June 04, 2020 COVID-19 has been a nasty shock for retailers the world over.

Peter Hall, EDC

Global tourism rocked by COVID-19

Weekly Commentary May 28, 2020 Few industries have felt the sting of COVID-19 more than global tourism.

Peter Hall, EDC

COVID-19 and the auto sector

Weekly Commentary May 21, 2020 Things were looking good for the global automotive sector entering 2020

Peter Hall, EDC

COVID-19 and country risk ratings

Weekly Commentary May 14, 2020 COVID-19 is changing a lot of country risk ratings—best to keep an eye on this space.

Stephen Tapp, EDC

EDC’s COVID-19 survey

Weekly Commentary May 07, 2020 Until official data are posted, surveys are our best view of reality. What does EDC's survey say?

Peter Hall, EDC

We’re not through the worst bit…yet

Weekly Commentary April 30, 2020 EDC Economics is in perpetual forecast mode until further notice. Here is our latest Global Economic Outlook.

Peter Hall, EDC

The oil industry and COVID-19

Weekly Commentary April 23, 2020 Today’s oil patch woes are inconceivable – and not entirely caused by the virus.

Peter Hall, EDC

COVID-19: The impact on industry

Weekly Commentary April 16, 2020 The need for business support is universal, but not uniform; some need more than others.

Peter Hall, EDC

The coronavirus policy response

Weekly Commentary April 09, 2020 In global government stimulus programs, there’s an urgent need for speed

Peter Hall, EDC

Coronavirus and the consumer

Weekly Commentary April 02, 2020 If consumers aren’t overwhelmed with the huge but temporary decline, they’ll be the motor of a solid recovery.

Peter Hall, EDC

The coronavirus crunch

Weekly Commentary March 26, 2020 Coronavirus is rocking the world. How much, and for how long?

Peter Hall, EDC

The coronavirus and business investment

Weekly Commentary March 19, 2020 How will business investment be affected by the coronavirus?

Peter Hall, EDC

The expanding coronavirus (COVID-19) threat

Weekly Commentary March 12, 2020 No business is untouched by the Coronavirus; how is this global issue going to play out?

Peter Hall, EDC

Key issues in Canada’s long-term trade outlook

Weekly Commentary March 05, 2020 There’s a lot of bad risk around; is there any “good” risk in our future?

Peter Hall, EDC

Risky today, riskier tomorrow

Weekly Commentary February 27, 2020 Future risks are rising; is that bad news or good news?

Peter Hall, EDC

Mexico’s uncertain future

Weekly Commentary February 20, 2020 Is Mexico on investors’ “Hot List”?

Andrea Gardella, EDC

Helping to make sense of uncertainty

Weekly Commentary February 13, 2020 Ups and downs throughout the world in 2019 has made for a choppy entry into 2020.

Stephen Tapp, EDC

Canadian trade confidence continues to slide

Weekly Commentary February 04, 2020

Peter Hall, EDC

China’s 2020 outlook

Weekly Commentary January 30, 2020 2020 is going to be a delicate year for China’s economy

Peter Hall, EDC

Do weak demographics mean slower overall growth?

Weekly Commentary January 23, 2020 Are machines taking over?

Peter Hall, EDC

Global business investment is at a standstill

Weekly Commentary January 16, 2020 The story stretches back over a decade.

Peter Hall, EDC

Will 2020 bring an end to the policy pause?

Weekly Commentary January 09, 2020 Is trade policy mayhem here to stay?

Peter Hall, EDC

Surprise of the decade

Weekly Commentary December 19, 2019 A decade is a long time; did this one have a pivotal eco-political moment?

Peter Hall, EDC

Cold, cold Christmas for consumers?

Weekly Commentary December 12, 2019 Are consumers singing a dirge or a dance this holiday season?

Peter Hall, EDC

Prices: Why so tame?

Weekly Commentary December 06, 2019 Prices may be tame - but will it last?

Peter Hall, EDC

Navigating the oil market: Are G-suits still required?

Weekly Commentary November 28, 2019 Is the planet running out of crude oil? Not by any means.

John Bitzan, EDC

EDC breaks down the Top 10 risks facing Canadian exporters

Weekly Commentary November 21, 2019 Export Development Canada is releasing its list of the Top 10 Global Risks facing Canada to help exporters prepare for an international environment fraught with uncertainty.

Peter Hall, EDC

Exports grow as economy rebounds

Weekly Commentary November 14, 2019 Exporters hold on through 2020, but the best news may come later

Peter Hall, EDC

Are the big trade spats one-sided?

Weekly Commentary November 07, 2019 If this goes wrong, there’s lots to lose all around

Peter Hall, EDC

Slowdown: High-stakes game

Weekly Commentary October 31, 2019 The table stakes are high: recession or no recession

Andrea Gardella, EDC

A Tale of Divergence

Weekly Commentary October 25, 2019 Rising uncertainty allows for the brave and informed to find opportunities.

Peter Hall, EDC

Will robots rule the roost?

Weekly Commentary October 17, 2019 Robots don’t vote—but could they take over anyway?

Peter Hall, EDC

America’s relentless job machine

Weekly Commentary October 10, 2019 Although employment is a trailing indicator, this caboose is powering a pretty substantial train.

Peter Hall, EDC

Confidence checkup

Weekly Commentary October 03, 2019 With concern about slowing growth and political uncertainty, what are the gauges of confidence telling us?

Peter Hall, EDC

Business economics: A renaissance?

Weekly Commentary September 26, 2019 Are business economists about to get a bit wealthier?

Peter Hall, EDC

Is India at risk?

Weekly Commentary September 19, 2019 India has the capacity to right its recent wobbles.

Peter Hall, EDC

Two-speed global economy

Weekly Commentary September 12, 2019 Will the slow gear stop the car in its tracks?

Peter Hall, EDC

Uh-oh: Yield curve inversion!

Weekly Commentary September 05, 2019 Trade turmoil is spilling into financial markets, adding to current worries

Peter Hall, EDC

Trade wars and the agriculture outlook

Weekly Commentary August 29, 2019 Is China's ban on U.S. agriculture exports a sign of more to come?

Peter Hall, EDC

Today’s data agency: You!

Weekly Commentary August 22, 2019 You may not know it, but you are a data agency

Peter Hall, EDC

Needed: Big breakthrough (or two!)

Weekly Commentary August 15, 2019 In today’s trade wars, are we in for boundless bouts of brinksmanship, or an abrupt breakthrough?

Peter Hall, EDC

Uncertainty: At an all-time high?

Weekly Commentary August 08, 2019 Are we really more worried than ever about economic policy?

Peter Hall, EDC

Risk 2.0: Are we ready?

Weekly Commentary August 01, 2019 Several key risks are on a structural uptrend. Is Canada prepared?

Peter Hall, EDC

Debtrimental development?

Weekly Commentary July 26, 2019 Planet Earth’s love of debt is in full bloom. Should we worry?

Peter Hall, EDC

The confidence paradox

Weekly Commentary July 18, 2019 Consumers are ignoring the summer Scrooge, but he’s giving businesses the blues.

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Country risk: What’s on our radar?

Weekly Commentary July 11, 2019 Which markets are on our country risk radar as we head into the second half of 2019? Read on to find out more.

Peter Hall, EDC

Interest rate reversal?

Weekly Commentary July 04, 2019 Flip-flops aren’t the favoured footwear of central bankers

Peter Hall, EDC

What’s up with global shipping?

Weekly Commentary June 27, 2019 This leading indicator is bucking the current trend. What’s up?

EDC Peter Hall

As the world diversifies, will we?

Weekly Commentary June 20, 2019 Canada’s trade with the world ain’t the space it used to be. Can we adapt?

EDC Peter Hall

Trade confidence tumbles

Weekly Commentary June 13, 2019 Is global softening getting to Canada?

EDC Peter Hall: May the votes be with you

May the votes be with you

Weekly Commentary June 06, 2019 Maybe this will turn the Brexit tide, Maybe not.

EDC Peter Hall: Chicago Bound!

Chicago Bound!

Weekly Commentary May 30, 2019 To the Midwest, EDC says, “Mais oui!”

EDC Peter Hall: What’s logic got to do with it?

What’s logic got to do with it?

Weekly Commentary May 23, 2019 Is there method to the madness of today’s trade policy moves?

EDC Peter Hall: Who’s My Neighbour?

Who’s my neighbour?

Weekly Commentary May 16, 2019 Your new neighbours are increasingly defining the economic future. Get to know them!

EDC Peter Hall: US Labour: Return of the Lost

U.S. Labour: return of the lost

Weekly Commentary May 09, 2019 The U.S. economy is experiencing a huge influx of disaffected workers

EDC Peter Hall: Go for the growth!

Go for the growth!

Weekly Commentary May 02, 2019 Catch-up economies are an increasingly important growth dynamo

EDC Peter Hall: George on my mind

Georgia On My Mind

Weekly Commentary April 25, 2019 Why is EDC opening up a representation in Atlanta? Good question.

EDC Peter Hall: All systems go

All Systems Go?

Weekly Commentary April 18, 2019 Economy poised for liftoff, with a few bumps along the way

EDC Susanna Campagna: The Disease of Dis-ease?

The Disease of dis-ease?

Weekly Commentary April 11, 2019 Today’s global risk environment is not going away anytime soon.

EDC Peter Hall: Alberta exports: A way out?

Alberta exports: A way out?

Weekly Commentary April 04, 2019 The dominance of oil and gas in Alberta exports is gripping.

EDC Peter Hall: Canada’s ASEAN Opportunities

Canada’s ASEAN Opportunities

Weekly Commentary March 28, 2019 The growth record of ASEAN economies is reason enough to deepen ties.

EDC Peter Hall: Canada’s Asian Bonanza

Canada’s Asian Bonanza

Weekly Commentary March 21, 2019 One of our key impediments in Canada is that we seem to have a natural aversion to the risks, perceived or real, of dealing in Asian markets.

EDC Peter Hall: What’s the new model?

What’s the new model?

Weekly Commentary March 14, 2019 Is a new model of the economy in the works, and if so, what does it look like?

Will the U.S.-China trade tiff end well

Will the U.S.-China trade tiff end well?

Weekly Commentary March 07, 2019 The stakes are high, elevating this to one of the top Canadian – and global – international trade concerns. No one knows this better than both the U.S. and China. So, will it end well?

EDC Peter Hall: Critical need for investment

Critical need for investment

Weekly Commentary February 28, 2019 What if our key growth issue isn’t demand, but capacity?

EDC Ian Tobman: Charting the course through

Charting the course through chaos

Weekly Commentary February 21, 2019 EDC reveals Top 10 Global Risks facing Canada’s exporters

EDC Peter Hall: The heart of the matter?

The heart of the matter?

Weekly Commentary February 14, 2019 Is this key cause of US populism insurmountable?

EDC Peter Hall: Interest rates on hold

Interest rates on hold

Weekly Commentary February 07, 2019 Are interest rate hikes too much for the economy to handle?

EDC Peter Hall: Mexico’s next move

Mexico’s next move

Weekly Commentary January 31, 2019 Mexico’s future hangs in the balance

EDC Peter Hall: Canada’s growth zone

Canada’s growth zone

Weekly Commentary January 24, 2019 Canada’s economic traffic may be slowing…but there is a fast lane

EDC Peter Hall: And you thought 2018 was fun!

And you thought 2018 was fun!

Weekly Commentary January 17, 2019 The world economy will have a number of hurdles to overcome in 2019

EDC Andrea Gardella: What happened in 2018 and what can we learn for 2019

What happened in 2018 and what can we learn for 2019

Weekly Commentary January 10, 2019 Understand the past to navigate the future of country risk.

EDC Peter Hall: Surge in trade confidence short-lived

Surge in trade confidence short-lived

Weekly Commentary December 18, 2018 Canadian exporters confidence: from surge to dirge?

EDC Peter Hall: Surprise of the year: Stronger pact

Surprise of the year: Stronger pact

Weekly Commentary December 13, 2018 Globalization is under attack…or is it?

EDC Peter Hall: The CUSMA clock is ticking

The CUSMA clock is ticking

Weekly Commentary December 06, 2018 CUSMA: Bumpy road to ratification?

EDC Peter Hall: The U.S. consumer boom

The U.S. consumer boom

Weekly Commentary November 29, 2018 Another U.S. consumer bubble? Guess again.

EDC Peter Hall: China at the crossroads

China at the crossroads

Weekly Commentary November 22, 2018 With the challenges China faces, what’s the prognosis?

EDC Peter Hall: Is trade diversification worth it?

Is trade diversification worth it?

Weekly Commentary November 15, 2018 Is the US market really Canada’s only long-term trade bet?

EDC Peter Hall: Canada’s provincial industrial export outlook

Canada’s provincial-industrial export outlook

Weekly Commentary November 08, 2018 Some surprising export stories at provincial and industrial levels

EDC Peter Hall: The Canada-Australia Connection

The Canada-Australia Connection

Weekly Commentary November 01, 2018 Oz: An Asian hot-spot for Canada?

EDC Peter Hall: Canada’s next fish crisis

Canada’s next fish crisis

Weekly Commentary October 25, 2018 Can opportunity be a crisis for Canada’s fishing industry?

DC Peter Hall: Managing the Mayhem

Managing the Mayhem

Weekly Commentary October 18, 2018 The outlook is bright, but big parts of the global economic puzzle need to come together.

EDC Stephen Tapp: Are global exports faltering?

Are global exports faltering?

Weekly Commentary October 11, 2018 Are trade fears crippling global export activity?

EDC Peter Hall: A New Deal for North America

A New Deal for North America

Weekly Commentary October 04, 2018 With the new North American free trade deal, Canada has a green light for export growth.

EDC Peter Hall: Populism: On the way out?

Populism: On the way out?

Weekly Commentary September 27, 2018 Populism is challenging international trade axioms – but is it in decline?

EDC Susanna Campagna: Currencies tumble as markets reprice risk

Currencies tumble as markets reprice risk

Weekly Commentary September 20, 2018 How do we make sense of the current emerging market sell off? Read on to find out more…

EDC Peter Hall: Running Hot

Running Hot

Weekly Commentary September 13, 2018 Politics isn’t the only thing that’s hot south of the border

Peter Hall EDC Trade Confidence

Trade confidence holding its ground

Weekly Commentary December 15, 2017 2017 has not been international trade’s best year. Oh, growth is having a good run alright; the problem is political. Just how is trade confidence doing?

Peter Hall EDC Canada NAFTA

Exposed!

Weekly Commentary November 16, 2017 NAFTA renegotiations has Canadians transfixed, as a majority of exports go to the US. What does this mean for Canada's provinces? How exposed are we?

Peter Hall EDC U.S. Export Insights

Shifting stateside? Think about it…

Weekly Commentary July 27, 2017 Political rheotric and NAFTA re-negotiations have Canadian exporters worried about the U.S. These concerns are real, so it's important to do your homework.

Peter Hall EDC Trade Confidence Index

Surprise rise in trade confidence

Weekly Commentary June 22, 2017 The anti-trade rhetoric and the political turmoil of 2017 are a prescription for lower trade confidence. However, surveys of Canadian exporters say differently.