EDC's Trade Confidence Index reveals five trends shaping exporter resilience

Key takeaways from EDC’s Trade Confidence Index

1. Trade confidence is improving as exporters adapt to uncertainty

Overall trade confidence increased to 71.7 at mid-year 2026, approaching the historical average of 72.4. The increase reflects how exporters are responding to uncertainty rather than waiting for stability to return.

2. The most confident exporters do more than export

Exporters that participate in multiple trade activities are less reliant on any single source of growth. Companies focused exclusively on the U.S. report lower trade confidence, while those active in both the U.S. and other markets are more likely to diversify, import and invest.

3. Exporters are balancing U.S. exposure with new market opportunities

Interest in new markets remains strong, with 72% of exporters planning to expand within two years, one of the highest levels seen in recent years.

4. Exporters are strengthening domestic foundations to support growth

Exporters are investing in their Canadian operations, increasing domestic sales and strengthening supplier relationships, creating a stronger foundation at home for future opportunities abroad.

5. Geopolitical uncertainty has become part of everyday decision making

Rather than waiting for disruptions to happen, exporters are adapting their operating models to account for ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

About EDC’s Trade Confidence Index

This TCI survey was conducted between June 8 and July 27, 2026, and released on September 3, 2026. Twice a year, EDC surveys Canadian exporters and businesses planning to export to assess their confidence and expectations for growth over the next six months.

Since 1999, EDC has surveyed Canadian exporters to better understand their concerns, expectations and plans for international growth.