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Global Economic Outlook—Summer 2025

With growing risks, Canadian companies face new challenges. EDC’s Global Economic Outlook offers insights to help you make better business decisions.

Frayed rope about to break.

 

 

Stuart Bergman

Stuart Bergman

Vice-President and Chief Economist
Export Development Canada

 

 

Insights from EDC’s chief economist

As global markets face increased volatility and uncertainty, Canadian companies are navigating higher tariffs, changing trade measures and weak consumer confidence. EDC’s chief economist, Stuart Bergman, addresses these challenges in our latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) report.

For a comprehensive analysis of the global economic landscape, this essential resource provides detailed overviews of key countries, interest rates, commodity prices and exchange rates, helping you make informed business decisions.

Key highlights:

  • U.S. economic outlook: Despite weak business and consumer confidence, and labour market softness, hiring continues. We forecast U.S. economic growth at 1.4% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, with no recession expected.
  • Canada’s economic challenges: An increasingly volatile outlook has complicated business planning for Canadian companies, dampening prospects for investment and hiring. This has resulted in a slowdown in employment growth, pushing Canada’s unemployment rate to 7% in May. We expect growth to fall to 0.8% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026.
  • Global growth projections: Despite some tariffs being on hold, the U.S.’s average effective tariff rate is nearly 16%, the highest since the 1930s, pressuring the global economy. EDC Economics expects global growth of 2.6% in 2025 and 3% in 2026.
  • Interest and exchange rates: We expect the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee to reduce interest rates by only 25 basis points in 2025, followed by three cuts in 2026. As the Canadian economy weakens, the Bank of Canada is likely to cut rates three times in 2025, with no changes expected in 2026.

Why read the Global Economic Outlook?

  • Geopolitical economic impacts: Understand how trade tensions and policy uncertainty are shaping the global economy.
  • Interest and exchange rates: Stay updated on key interest and exchange rates for Canada, Europe and the United States.
  • Commodity prices: Find out how commodities such as oil, copper and gold are performing globally.

EDC Economics’ Global Economic Outlook highlights a highly uncertain trade environment ahead for business planning. Stay informed by reading the full report.

GEO overview

Forecast table of GDP growth rates for select countries and regions

   

Forecast table of interest rates, exchange rates and U.S. housing starts

   

Forecast table of prices for oil, natural gas, gold and copper


 

Globe rests on a table

Geopolitical economic impacts

Key economic indicators will show how geopolitical tensions, as well as supply chain issues, have impacted the global economy and the outlook for 2025 and beyond.


 

Businessman prepares to cross street in busy downtown

Interest and exchange rates

Take a look at key interest and exchange rates for Canada, Europe and the United States.


 

Sun sets over oil rig

Commodity prices

Find out how commodities, like oil, natural gas, copper and gold, are performing globally.

 

 

Continue reading the Global Economic Outlook for more key insights.

Read the full report

 

 

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Date modified: 2025-07-16

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