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Peter G. Hall

Vice-President and Chief Economist
Export Development Canada

 


The fast start won’t last

Export Development Canada’s Global Economic Outlook is a must-read, packed with valuable information on COVID-19’s economic impacts, including the world’s key economies’ GDP growth in the next two years, commodity prices, interest rates and exchange rates. We also delve into the unprecedented global policy response to COVID-19.

EDC’s Economics’ autumn 2020 Global Economic Outlook sees the fast start and current aggressive growth paving the way for a 6.6% increase in the world economy in 2021. That’s hard to fathom when many are still coming to grips with the 4.3% global decline this year, an unthinkable turn of events from 2019’s moderate 2.9% growth performance. Next year’s outlook is far from fanciful, though, and still doesn’t get the global economy back to pre-pandemic levels of activity.

While the initial growth rebound in late spring was very encouraging, the drama is still unfolding as COVID-19 cases rise causing some countries to reinstate their containment measures. So, don’t expect fast to last: We’re already seeing growth moderate, and future containment of infections is far from guaranteed. For now, we take comfort in the economy’s demonstrated resilience, aided by potent government support and pent-up spending demand. If containment of the virus goes well, the economy still has key sources of firepower.


GEO overview

Forecast table of GDP growth rates for select countries and regions

   

Forecast table of interest rates, exchange rates and U.S. housing starts

   

Forecast table of prices for oil, natural gas, gold and copper


 

Globe rests on a table

COVID-19 economic impacts

Key economic indicators will show how the coronavirus has impacted the global economy and the outlook for 2020. 


 

Businessman prepares to cross street in busy downtown

Interest and exchange rates

A look at key economic indicators in the United States and Canada, including housing starts and GDP.


 

Farmer in large tractor plows fields of wheat

Commodity prices

Find out how commodities, like oil, natural gas, copper and gold, are performing globally.

 

 

Continue reading the Global Economic Outlook for valuable insights.