Insights from EDC’s chief economist
As global markets face increased volatility and uncertainty, Canadian companies are navigating higher tariffs, changing trade measures and weak consumer confidence. EDC’s chief economist, Stuart Bergman, addresses these challenges in our latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) report.
For a comprehensive analysis of the global economic landscape, this essential resource provides detailed overviews of key countries, interest rates, commodity prices and exchange rates, helping you make informed business decisions.
Key highlights:
- U.S. economic outlook: Despite weak business and consumer confidence, and labour market softness, hiring continues. We forecast U.S. economic growth at 1.4% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, with no recession expected.
- Canada’s economic challenges: An increasingly volatile outlook has complicated business planning for Canadian companies, dampening prospects for investment and hiring. This has resulted in a slowdown in employment growth, pushing Canada’s unemployment rate to 7% in May. We expect growth to fall to 0.8% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026.
- Global growth projections: Despite some tariffs being on hold, the U.S.’s average effective tariff rate is nearly 16%, the highest since the 1930s, pressuring the global economy. EDC Economics expects global growth of 2.6% in 2025 and 3% in 2026.
- Interest and exchange rates: We expect the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee to reduce interest rates by only 25 basis points in 2025, followed by three cuts in 2026. As the Canadian economy weakens, the Bank of Canada is likely to cut rates three times in 2025, with no changes expected in 2026.
Why read the Global Economic Outlook?
- Geopolitical economic impacts: Understand how trade tensions and policy uncertainty are shaping the global economy.
- Interest and exchange rates: Stay updated on key interest and exchange rates for Canada, Europe and the United States.
- Commodity prices: Find out how commodities such as oil, copper and gold are performing globally.
EDC Economics’ Global Economic Outlook highlights a highly uncertain trade environment ahead for business planning. Stay informed by reading the full report.
