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Peter G. Hall

Vice-President and Chief Economist
Export Development Canada


Global forecast: The economic storm is passing

Export Development Canada’s Global Economic Outlook is a must-read, packed with valuable information on the impact of COVID-19, as well as the growth in the next two years in the world’s key economies, commodity prices, interest rates and exchange rates.

With a steady vaccine rollout and as new coronavirus infection rates continue to decrease, confidence is building in economies around the world. Now that U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration’s US$1.9 trillion stimulus program is official, economists are unanimous that U.S. growth will be quite strong this year, at around 5%-6% in 2021.

EDC Economics have raised the forecast for U.S. growth in 2021 to 6.3%, a boost of over two percentage points from our autumn outlook. That’s a massive upward revision, and despite Buy American fears, is having a profound effect on global growth. We have increased our call for global growth to 6.4% for 2021, with a robust 5.4% forecast for 2022. The improved economic outlook for the U.S. will anchor the worldwide forecasts: China’s early rebound suggests strong support for its 10.8% bounce this year, while India is expected to see a whopping 12.3% pop. Following a decline of 5.3%, Canada is forecast to see a rebound of 5.5% this year, followed by above-average 4.1.% growth in 2022.

This is the best news since the pandemic hit a year ago. All being well, the fiscal boost should encourage private spending, finally lifting us from COVID-19’s quagmire.

GEO overview

Forecast table of GDP growth rates for select countries and regions


Forecast table of interest rates, exchange rates and U.S. housing starts


Forecast table of prices for oil, natural gas, gold and copper


Globe rests on a table

COVID-19 economic impacts

Key economic indicators will show how the coronavirus has impacted the global economy and the outlook for 2021. 


Businessman prepares to cross street in busy downtown

Interest and exchange rates

A look at key economic indicators in the United States and Canada, including housing starts and GDP.


Sun sets over oil rig

Commodity prices

Find out how commodities, like oil, natural gas, copper and gold, are performing globally.



Continue reading the Global Economic Outlook for valuable insights.