The fast start won’t last
Export Development Canada’s Global Economic Outlook is a must-read, packed with valuable information on COVID-19’s economic impacts, including the world’s key economies’ GDP growth in the next two years, commodity prices, interest rates and exchange rates. We also delve into the unprecedented global policy response to COVID-19.
EDC’s Economics’ autumn 2020 Global Economic Outlook sees the fast start and current aggressive growth paving the way for a 6.6% increase in the world economy in 2021. That’s hard to fathom when many are still coming to grips with the 4.3% global decline this year, an unthinkable turn of events from 2019’s moderate 2.9% growth performance. Next year’s outlook is far from fanciful, though, and still doesn’t get the global economy back to pre-pandemic levels of activity.
While the initial growth rebound in late spring was very encouraging, the drama is still unfolding as COVID-19 cases rise causing some countries to reinstate their containment measures. So, don’t expect fast to last: We’re already seeing growth moderate, and future containment of infections is far from guaranteed. For now, we take comfort in the economy’s demonstrated resilience, aided by potent government support and pent-up spending demand. If containment of the virus goes well, the economy still has key sources of firepower.