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Peter G. Hall

Vice-President and Chief Economist
Export Development Canada


The fork in the road

With retail sales soaring, global trade fully recovered and vast public stimulus spending in place, you’d think we were almost back to normal. But will it continue? While the current economic outlook is resilient, we’re also contending with rising COVID-19 infections.

The latest Global Economic Outlook is a must-read, packed with valuable information on the dynamics of this growth and its impact on the world’s key economies, commodity prices, interest rates and exchange rates.

Our forecast calls for a world economy at 6% growth this year and 5.5% in 2022. Emerging markets will collectively accelerate from a 6.3% recovery in 2021 to 6.4% in 2022. After a 4.9% this year, Canada will hit 4.4% in 2022.

We expect supply chain and shipping shortages—major issues at the moment—to improve through 2022. But our projections are far from risk-free: Failure to contain COVID-19 conclusively could result in further lockdowns. Inflation could lead to central banks tightening more than the economy can handle, putting the brakes on growth.

When we reach an unmarked fork in the road, most of us pause. The only path forward to a winning approach is by embracing economic growth and developing viable COVID-19 coping strategies.

GEO overview

Forecast table of GDP growth rates for select countries and regions


Forecast table of interest rates, exchange rates and U.S. housing starts


Forecast table of prices for oil, natural gas, gold and copper


Globe rests on a table

COVID-19 economic impacts

Key economic indicators will show how COVID-19, as well as supply chain issues, have impacted the global economy and the outlook for 2021 and beyond.


Businessman prepares to cross street in busy downtown

Interest and exchange rates

A look at key economic indicators in the United States and Canada, including housing starts and GDP.


Sun sets over oil rig

Commodity prices

Find out how commodities, like oil, natural gas, copper and gold, are performing globally.



Continue reading the Global Economic Outlook for valuable insights.