Global forecast: On track for strong, but uneven growth
Export Development Canada’s spring 2022 Global Economic Outlook is a must-read, packed with valuable information on the impact of COVID-19, as well as the growth in the next two years in the world’s key economies, interest rates, commodity prices and exchange rates.
As the economic impacts of COVID-19 recede, the global economy was heating up. The conflict in Ukraine, however, has complicated the outlook significantly, triggering a break between the fortunes of the world’s major economic blocs. However, a tight job market and strong consumer savings will help drive growth in North America. While inflationary pressures far outweigh any fears of a growth slowdown here, we expect central banks to effectively manage any overheating, helped by a rotation in demand back toward services and additional spending on business investment.
EDC Economics expects the global economy to grow by 4.1% in 2022 and 3.9% in 2023. The U.S. economy is forecast to grow by 4% this year and a still-strong 3.1% in 2023. Our base case calls for Euro Area growth of 2.9% in 2022 and 2.5% in 2023, with significant risks to that outlook. The Canadian economy will see continued strength in 2022: Up 4.1% and moderating to 2.6% in 2023. We anticipate developed markets to post growth of 3.3% in 2022, before stabilizing at 2.8%, in 2023.