1. Prolonged COVID-19
The sudden and sharp impact of COVID-19 placed an unprecedented strain on the global economy. The sustained return of economic activity to pre-pandemic levels will be determined by the pace and effectiveness of the vaccine rollout, the emergence of variants and future waves, subsequent lockdowns, and our ability to manage any enduring threat of transmission. The trend to watch is whether new variants emerge that continue to present global health challenges, warranting widespread economic responses. Such a scenario would cause growth to stall and delay any sustainable recovery. COVID-19 has also raised the spectre of other global health threats and the impact of large-scale, co-ordinated efforts to combat them.