Export Development Canada’s 2020 mid-year Trade Confidence Index (TCI) survey captures the mood of 1,000 Canadian exporters and reveals information not readily available in traditional trade statistics. The biannual index showcases the concerns and expectations of Canadian companies for the future and their evolving international operations and strategies. EDC has conducted this survey since 1999.


 

Overall outlook: The TCI’s five key findings

1. Canadian trade confidence plummets 13.3 points to its lowest score ever

Canadian trade confidence fell to 56.0, its lowest level ever

  

 

 

2. COVID-19 impact on Canadian businesses

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a negative effect on sales for 73% of businesses surveyed and a positive impact for 14%.

73% say COVID-19 had negative impact on sales
14% had positive impact
12% had no impact

87% of those impacted by COVID-19 said it will last longer than four months

32% of respondents say COVID-19 will impact sale longer than 1 year

 

 

 

 

3. Global recession worries remain high

The majority (67%) think the recession caused by COVID-19 will last more than one year and 44% believe the recovery will feature multiple waves of rebounds followed by downturns.

67% say recession caused by COVID-19 will last more than 1 year

 

 

 

 

4. Trade protectionism remains a key concern

Trade protectionism is affecting Canadian exporters’ global strategies.

Cattle farmer worries about protectionism
Protectionism is affecting 39% of Canadian exporters’ global strategies
69% expect protectionism to increase in year ahead

  

 

 

  

Businessman walks to meeting in European city

5. Canadian exporters look to increase diversification of their global footprints by targeting new markets

Businessman walks to meeting in European city

  

 

Market diversification

69% of exporters plan to export to new market

   

 

 

Key markets for current exporters planning to expand

Top markets exporters plan to expand: U.S. 28%, U.K. 23%, Germany 20%, Mexico 20%, France 18%

 

 

Key markets for businesses planning to start exporting

Top markets for those planning to start exporting: U.S. 67%, U.K. 25%, Germany 17%, Italy 17%, Japan 16%

 

 

 

About EDC’s Trade Confidence Index

This TCI survey was conducted May 6 to May 26, 2020, and released June 25, 2020. Twice a year, EDC surveys 1,000 Canadian exporters. The results are a pulse check of Canadian exporters’ level of confidence and their expectations of international trade opportunities over the next six months.

 

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