Export Development Canada’s 2019 year-end Trade Confidence Index (TCI) survey captures the mood of 1,000 Canadian exporters and reveals insightful information not readily available in traditional trade statistics. The biannual index showcases exporters’ concerns and expectations for the future, their evolving international operations and strategies and views on emerging issues.


 

Overall outlook: The TCI’s five key findings

1. Canadian trade confidence fell to its lowest level in eight years

Canadian trade confidence fell to 69.3, its lowest level in 8 years

  

 

 


2. Trade protectionism remains a key concern

Trade protectionism is still affecting Canadian exporters’ global strategies and nearly half expect this key concern to increase in the year ahead.

Female fashion designer working in studio

  

Protectionism is affecting almost one-third of Canadian exporters’ global strategies

Protectionism is affecting almost one-third of Canadian exporters’ global strategies. 

35% expect protectionism to increase in the year ahead

Slightly more than one-third expect protectionism to increase in the year ahead.

The U.S.-China trade dispute is negatively affecting almost one-third of respondents

The U.S.-China trade dispute is negatively affecting almost one-third of respondents and one-third don’t expect a full resolution.

  

 

  

 

3. CUSMA uncertainty lifting


 

16% of Canadian exporters have a negative assessment of CUSMA

Significantly fewer respondents held negative opinions of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) trade deal.

  

 

 

  

4. Global recession worries remain elevated

Survey respondents who think the next global recession is soon (2020) have lower TCI score

Those who think the next global recession is imminent in 2020 have a lower TCI score than those who think it will be 2021 or later (63.4 versus 70.8)

  

 

 

  

Female entrepreneur tours city centre in Copenhagen.

5. Canadian exporters are increasingly diversifying their global footprints by investing outside of Canada

  


Investment diversification

17% of exporters currently have investments abroad
10% of exporters plan to invest in new markets

   

 

 

Key markets for Canadian firms planning to invest in abroad

Top markets exporters plan to invest abroard: U.S. 68% China 11%, Germany 7%, India 6%, Mexico 5%, U.K. 3%.

 

 

Tell us about yourself

All fields are required

Tell us about your company

All fields are required

Tell us a bit more about your company

All fields are required

And lastly

All fields are required

Tell us about yourself

Tell us about your company

Tell us a bit more about your company

Back

Sorry, our system is temporarily unavailable. Please try again later.

Don’t have a MyEDC account yet?

Register to unlock access to international insights, webinars, and resources that help you mitigate risk and grow your business.

Register now Log In

 

About the survey

About EDC’s Trade Confidence Index

This TCI survey was conducted in November to December 2019 and released Feb. 4, 2020. Twice a year, EDC surveys 1,000 Canadian exporters. The results are a pulse check of Canadian exporters’ level of confidence and their expectations of international trade opportunities over the next six months.