Trade tensions and shifting policies test the global economy’s balance
Insights from EDC’s chief economist
Imagine the global economy as a high-stakes game of Jenga—each move matters. In Export Development Canada’s latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO), EDC Economics explores how rising tariffs, policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions are shaking the foundation of global trade.
This essential quarterly report offers a comprehensive analysis of global markets, interest rates, currency trends and country-specific forecasts—helping Canadian exporters navigate today’s volatility with confidence.
Key highlights:
- Global growth outlook: EDC Economics forecasts global GDP growth of 2.7% in 2025, rising slightly to 2.9% in 2026, as trade tensions and policy shifts continue to rattle the global economy.
- Canada’s recession risk: Sector-specific tariffs and investment uncertainty have pushed machinery and equipment spending to its lowest levels since the 1980s. Growth is expected to stall at 0.9% in 2025, with only a modest recovery to 1% in 2026.
- U.S. resilience: Despite early-year instability, the U.S. economy is forecast to avoid recession, with growth slightly less than 2% in both years. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in 2025 and again in 2026.
- Currency and commodities: Gold has surged past US$4,000 per troy ounce, its highest inflation-adjusted value since 1980, as investors seek shelter from monetary policy uncertainty. The Canadian dollar is projected to average US$0.72 in 2025, rising slightly to US$0.73 in 2026.
Why read the Global Economic Outlook?
- Geopolitical and trade dynamics: Understand how tariffs and shifting policies are reshaping global trade.
- Interest and exchange rates: Stay informed on rate movements in Canada, the United States and Europe.
- Commodity performance: Track global trends in oil, copper, gold and other key resources.
Business planning in uncertain markets
The global economy is in a delicate balance. EDC Economics’ Global Economic Outlook offers expert analysis on global trade tensions, interest rate trends and country-specific forecasts—critical insights for Canadian exporters navigating uncertainty. Download the full EDC economic forecast report to stay informed and plan ahead.
