With retail sales soaring, global trade fully recovered and vast public stimulus spending in place, you’d think we were almost back to normal. But will it continue? While the current economic outlook is resilient, we’re also contending with rising COVID-19 infections.
The latest Global Economic Outlook is a must-read, packed with valuable information on the dynamics of this growth and its impact on the world’s key economies, commodity prices, interest rates and exchange rates.
Our forecast calls for a world economy at 6% growth this year and 5.5% in 2022. Emerging markets will collectively accelerate from a 6.3% recovery in 2021 to 6.4% in 2022. After a 4.9% this year, Canada will hit 4.4% in 2022.
We expect supply chain and shipping shortages—major issues at the moment—to improve through 2022. But our projections are far from risk-free: Failure to contain COVID-19 conclusively could result in further lockdowns. Inflation could lead to central banks tightening more than the economy can handle, putting the brakes on growth.
When we reach an unmarked fork in the road, most of us pause. The only path forward to a winning approach is by embracing economic growth and developing viable COVID-19 coping strategies.