Quebec’s healthy mix of export sectors, which is the most diversified in Canada, will continue to benefit the province as export growth is forecast to increase by five per cent both this year and next.
This year the champion of that group will be the province’s aircraft and parts sector, according to Export Development Canada’s (EDC) semi-annual Global Export Forecast.
With Bombardier on track to deliver its new CSeries aircraft in the second quarter of 2016, growth in the aerospace sector is forecast to increase to 14 per cent this year, followed by eight per cent in 2017.
“Bombardier isn’t alone in fueling the growth in the aerospace sector,” said Peter Hall, Chief Economist, EDC. “Equipment and services is another strong sub-sector that will also support Quebec’s upswing in exports this year. Montreal-based CAE, for example, has lined up large simulator contracts with the German Navy and US Air Force this year.”
As is the case with most provinces, Quebec’s export story is very much tied to the United States. The surging US economy, and the increasing demand that comes with it, will continue to be a key growth driver for Quebec businesses.
“The vast majority of Quebec’s exports go to the US, so growth south of the border is clearly a good news story for the province,” says Hall. “The price advantage from a lower Canadian dollar will continue to provide export-minded companies with competitive opportunities.”
For resource-based sectors, the outlook is also relatively positive. Quebec’s largest export sector – metals, ores, and other industrial products – accounts for roughly one-quarter of all its exports and is forecast to grow four per cent both this year and next.
Quebec’s forestry sector is also doing well, largely as a result of continuing growth in housing starts in the US. This sector is expected to see growth of four per cent this year and five per cent in 2017.
Peter Hall, EDC’s Chief Economist, will provide further details about the latest Global Export Forecast when he meets with local businesspeople today at the World Trade Centre Montreal, his third stop on EDC’s Let’s Talk Exports Tour.
Over the next month, Hall will travel across Canada for EDC’s Let’s Talk Exports tour, which offers insights on the current global economy and explores how economic trends will impact Canadian exporters.
For the full report, visit EDC’s Global Export Forecast: Spring 2016.
