Beyond the U.S.: Canada’s top export opportunities through 2035

When Canadian businesses think about international expansion, a familiar list of markets usually comes to mind: the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Japan and China.

It makes sense. These are among the world’s largest economies and Canada’s most important trading partners. But the biggest export opportunities of the next decade won’t necessarily come from the most familiar markets.

In fact, Export Development Canada’s (EDC) latest analysis of Canada’s export potential through 2035 suggests that markets such as Poland, Malaysia, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia could offer some of the strongest growth opportunities for Canadian exporters relative to current trade levels.

Those findings are drawn from EDC’s recent report, Canada’s top export markets and opportunities to 2035, which explores where Canadian goods and services exports have potential to grow over the long term based on economic size, geographic distance and institutional and cultural ties—or what we generally refer to as economic gravity.

While established destinations will remain critical, future export growth is likely to come from a broader mix of markets than many Canadian businesses expect.

How to identify the right export market for your business

The analysis reinforces an important reality: There’s no single list of best export markets. Opportunities vary depending on what a company sells, who its customers are and how it competes. Markets that look attractive for goods exporters don’t always align with those offering the greatest potential for services exporters.

For goods exporters, transportation costs, logistics networks and geographic proximity continue to shape trade patterns. For services exporters, institutional compatibility, regulatory alignment and business relationships often play a larger role.

The implication is straightforward. Successful diversification isn’t about pursuing every promising market. It’s about identifying the markets that best align with your company’s products, services and long-term strengths.

The United States, Europe and Asia-Pacific remain Canada’s largest opportunities

The United States remains Canada’s largest export market and is expected to remain so for the foreseeable future. The forces supporting Canada-U.S. trade—from proximity and integrated supply chains to deep commercial relationships—are difficult to replicate elsewhere.

According to our refreshed gravity model, Canadian goods exports to the U.S. could approach US$930 billion by 2035, while services exports could reach nearly US$193 billion. Of course, as trade agreements, geopolitical realities and other factors evolve, future updates may point to a different level of export potential.

Europe also continues to offer significant opportunities for Canadian exporters. By 2035, Canada’s goods export potential to Europe could exceed US$100 billion, while services export potential could reach more than US$40 billion. Markets including the United Kingdom, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Italy, Spain and Poland rank among the most attractive destinations for future export opportunities.

The Asia-Pacific region is equally compelling. Canada’s goods export potential to the region could exceed US$70 billion by 2035. China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia, Singapore and Vietnam all feature prominently among the region’s leading opportunities, supported by long-term economic growth and rising demand. Services exports could exceed US$30 billion by then.

Which emerging export markets could offer the strongest growth?

Looking beyond Canada’s largest trading partners reveals some of the most compelling findings from the analysis. Several countries that rarely dominate conversations about trade diversification emerge as some of the most promising destinations for Canadian exporters.

For goods exporters, markets such as Spain, Poland, Ireland, Sweden, Brazil and Malaysia present strong growth opportunities. For services exporters, Belgium, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Poland and Malaysia stand out.

These aren’t necessarily Canada’s largest export destinations today. Rather, they’re markets where future demand, economic growth and favourable business conditions suggest considerable room for expansion.

The bottom line: Building a market diversification strategy that works

Trade diversification isn’t about chasing every opportunity. It’s about understanding where future demand is likely to be strongest and where your products and services are most likely to succeed.

Large, established markets will continue to play a central role in Canadian trade. But some of the most promising opportunities over the next decade may come from markets that receive less attention today.

For Canadian exporters, the challenge isn’t choosing between established and emerging opportunities. It’s finding the right mix to support long-term growth, resilience and competitiveness.

This week, a very special thanks to Jean Victor, quantitative analyst in our Data-driven Research Analysis & Modelling team, whose research helped inform this analysis.

As always, at EDC Economics, we value your feedback. If there are topics you’d like us to explore, please email us at economics@edc.ca and we’ll do our best to cover them.