The EDC Economics team believes that the necessary containment measures, including travel restrictions and other physical distancing actions, currently being taken by affected countries will ultimately control the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic by summer 2020.
Despite the negative economic impacts in the near-term, we believe markets will eventually recover. Past instances of public health emergencies and pandemics suggest markets can withstand a short-term shock and more often see activity spike to make up for the pent-up demand that occurred during the crisis.
Countries that have strong trading relations and integrated supply chains with China will likely be impacted the most economically from the pandemic. Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and South Korea are particularly exposed as trade with China represents more than a quarter of their total gross domestic product (GDP).
Japan and South Korea are large exporters of both finished and intermediate goods, so the impact of economically restrictive actions will reverberate through global supply chains. Already, auto manufacturers around the world have had to shut down plants and slow down production. If countries throughout Europe, like Italy, are further affected by the virus, a broader slowdown in economic activity could occur.